THE 7 ECONOMISTS
Mark Zandi Chief Economist Moody's Analytics
Lawrence Yun Chief Economist National Association of Realtors
Aaron Terrazas Senior Economist Zillow
FEATURED ARTICLE
7 Economists Predict 2019 Housing Market Trends
THE 7 QUESTIONS
Len Kiefer Deputy Chief Economist Freddie Mac
What will be the most important housing market trend(s) in 2019 and why? P 6
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T he U.S. housing market will continue to face headwinds that likely will grow in strength and number in 2019, according to seven leading housing economists interviewed by Think Realty Housing News Report for our annual housing outlook report. Home affordability challenges ex- acerbated by rising mortgage rates will slow home price appreciation in 2019 to the low single digits — the most optimistic prediction from the seven economists was a 4.4 percent increase. Meanwhile a slowing econ- omy could further weaken demand for housing — although only one
What is your outlook for existing home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications? P 9
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economist expects that slowing economy to fall into recession terri- tory in the next two years. Several of the economists inter- viewed expressed confidence that rising demand from millennials combined with an increasing supply of smaller, more affordable homes from home builders will provide a hedge against the headwinds, re- sulting in a substantial boost in new home sales for the year — although not all agreed with that conclusion. All the economists interviewed did agree that the market’s upward momentum will be strong enough to keep homeownership rates at least
flat or rising in 2019. At the end of the day, the best hope for the 2019 housing market seems to be that it will be a “boring” market, reverting to long-term norms following seven years of feast that were preceded by six years of famine. We asked each economist seven questions relating to housing trends they expect in 2019. To the right is a list of the economists interviewed along with a table of contents for each question covered. Given the wealth of content provided, for each section we highlight a few key take- aways along with the full responses from all the economists.
What is your outlook for new home sales and prices in 2019? Why? Implications? P 11
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Tendayi Kapfidze Chief Economist LendingTree
What is your outlook for homeownership rates in 2019? Why? Implications? P 13
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Matthew Gardner Chief Economist Windermere Real Estate
Where are mortgage interest rates headed in 2019? Why? Implications? P 16
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Do you expect a recession in 2019 or 2020, and if yes how will that impact the housing market? P 18
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How will population and job migration patterns impact regional housing trends in 2019? P 20
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Doug Duncan Chief Economist Fannie Mae
Answers provided at the end of November 2018.
4 think realty housing news report
january 2019 5
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