The Price is Right MARKETS LIKELY TO WEATHER THE RECESSION STORM BETTER THAN OTHERS
by Ingo Winzer
JOB LOSSES VS LAST YEAR Q2 2019 Q2 2020
e’re just starting to learn how the pandemic will affect real estate
W
markets. Home price data from the second quarter show that our worst fear—a crash in demand that ignites a crash in home prices—probably won’t happen. What’s more likely is an accelerated version of what was already happening before COVID: a slowing of price increases. The average price increase in the past year was four percent, down from five percent in 2019 and six percent in 2018. We can expect a further cooling next year and in 2022 because large num- bers of people will permanently have lost their job (many already have, and more will later when budget cuts hit home). But all markets aren’t affected equally. Here are 10 markets where home pric- es have still increased at a good clip. I expect these markets to slow down as well but they may well weather the 2020 recession better than others. • Our Investors Metro Monitor shows you the risks and opportunities in 200 local real estate markets at www.LocalMarketMonitor.com.
US Average
4.7% 4.0%
12% 10%
Boise City, ID
7% 8%
Tacoma, WA
7% 7%
Phoenix, AZ
7% 7%
Colorado Springs, CO
7% 6%
Tampa-St., Petersburg, FL
6% 6%
Knoxville, TN
7% 6%
Salt Lake City, UT
5% 6%
West Palm Beach-Boca, FL
6% 5%
Austin TX
5% 5%
Greensboro-High Point, NC
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate markets for
more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com
thinkrealty . com | 93
Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter