We have modelled output and employment if housebuilding and net zero targets are met
Overview of methodology for output, employment and apprenticeship requirements between 2023-2033
In this section we model the need for skilled construction workers and apprentices over the next ten years in order to support a growing economy and replace workers that retire or leave the sector. The modelling accounts for the government’s ambitious plans for housebuilding and progress towards net zero. As such, it provides estimates of what is required to deliver on their vision, rather than providing views on what is likely to happen. The basis for our calculations related to additional housing and net zero related construction work are set out on page 26. The model accounts for growth in all sectors of construction to provide estimates for the total number of recruits needed in the construction sector as well as a breakdown for housing improvement and repair work and for twelve specific occupations that are relevant for this work. The results presented in this section show the gross number of new recruits needed and estimates of what that means for the number of apprenticeships needed based on previous relationships between new recruits and apprenticeships. Meeting the overall demand for new workers to deliver the government’s vision will be a challenge. It is likely to involve a combination of increased apprenticeships, attracting young people into construction careers, encouraging workers to stay in the sector, adapting practices to help people work for longer, and providing opportunities for re-skilling for people of all ages.
Employment requirements
Apprenticeship requirements
Construction sector output
Key drivers: • Projections of employment need • Historic need versus apprenticeship completions Apprentice completions
Expand output
Key drivers: • Housing starts • Housing targets • Lag between policy announcement and starts • CCC net zero investment path for new dwellings Housing new work Key drivers: • Transaction volumes • CCC residential dwellings net zero investment • Progress to heat pump targets Housing I&R Key drivers: • Real GDP and investment • Historic trends Other new work Key drivers: • Real GDP and investment • Historic trends • CCC infrastructure and non- residential investment Other I&R
Key drivers: • Output projections • Productivity assumption • Employment by trade and sector • Output by task and type of work
Retirees
Key drivers: • Construction
workforce age breakdown • Non-UK workers Key drivers: • CITB surveys • Non-UK workers Leavers and change of roles
Sources: Capital Economics, ONS, and the Climate Change Committee
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