Expansion in output to hit targets would require around 220,000 workers in housing I&R by 2033
UK construction employment required under housebuilding and net zero path (millions and the year-on-year change, %)
Productivity in the construction sector stagnated between the mid- 1990s and mid-2010s, but in the years before the pandemic productivity growth picked up. We assume this upward trend broadly continues in the long term. The output estimates from our modelling exercise, along with our productivity projections equate to construction employment of just over 2.6 million in 2033, an increase of 515,000 from 2023. That equates to average employment growth of 2.2% per annum. In the home I&R sector, our modelled output is consistent with a 219,000 rise in employment over the next ten years, to reach an employment total of 668,000 workers in 2033. Employment growth in the sector is subdued, at just 1.6% in 2024, as high interest rates continue to weigh on transactions, but growth surges by 25.1% by 2026 as transactions rise and retrofit work occurs.
millions, LHS
RHS, % y/y
4
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
-10
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Real construction output per worker (2019=100)
UK home improvements and repairs employment required under housebuilding and net zero path (thousands and the year-on-year change, %)
160
000s, LHS
RHS, % y/y
800
30
140
600
20
120
400
10
100
200
0
80
0
-10
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv and ONS
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