Employment need varies by geography based on current construction employment and activity, housing targets and dwelling stock
Estimated need for new recruits required under housebuilding and net zero path by 2033 (thousands)
Requirements by geography are based on a range of inputs
Our modelling results for employment required under the house- building target and net zero path can be split into three main categories: expand output; replace retirees; and replace leavers and changes in roles. A range of inputs have been used to split these needs for workers by geography. In order to attribute the employment requirements by for expanding output, we used our UK model results for employment need by type of activity:
Expand output Replace retirees Replace leavers and changes in roles
Greater Liverpool Greater Birmingham Greater Manchester Scotland London
202
96
56
47
▪ New housing work was allocated using local authority housebuilding targets under the proposed new method.*
26
▪ Housing I&R was allocated based on current dwelling stock by local authority, to represent retrofit work required.
0
50
100 150 200 250
Estimated need for new recruits required under housebuilding and net zero path by 2033 (thousands)
▪ Other new work and other I&R were based on output in these sectors by region from the 2023 construction output tables. Total construction output by local authority was used to disaggregate. Employment required to replace retirees, leavers and changes in roles was split by geography using construction employment by local authority.
Expand output Replace retirees Replace leavers and changes in roles
Leeds
19
Sheffield
11
London has the greatest need amongst the ten geographies
Bristol
7
The total employment requirement in the construction sector to reach targets totals 202,000 in London over the next decade; the largest need of the ten geographies studied. That equates to 16% of the 1.3 million need across the UK. Scotland’s requirements are just behind, at 96,000 over the next decade.
Newcastle upon Tyne
5
Nottingham
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sources: Capital Economics modelling results *Note: The government has proposed to change the housing need methodology, thereby changing local authority level housing targets. Estimates published by the Local Government Chronicle were used, available here. .
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