Key findings (3)
5. Modelling the need for workers and apprentices ▪ Delivering on the government’s vision for housebuilding and net zero will require an expansion of the skilled construction workforce; in this section we provide estimates of the number of new recruits and apprenticeships needed ▪ Strong growth in housing I&R activity is driven by increased housing transactions and retrofitting, rising from 1.7% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2033, equivalent to a £24 billion annual increase by 2033 in 2019 prices ▪ To deliver the construction output needed over the next 10 years, we estimate the construction workforce will need to expand by 515,000 and employment in the home I&R sector will need to expand by 219,000 ▪ To expand the workforce as well as replace retirees and others that leave the workforce, the sector will need to recruit a total of 1.27 million people over the next 10 years, of which 377,000 are needed in the home I&R sector
▪ A range of skills are needed to carry out I&R work with the greatest demand for carpenters, builders and electricians
▪ We estimate that a minimum of 347,000 completed construction apprenticeships are needed by 2033, with 30% of these for housing I&R; based on historic completion rates this would require around 700,000 people starting these apprenticehips
6. Need for workers and apprentices by location ▪ Our modelling results for UK employment required under the house-building target and net zero path can be split into three main categories: expand output; replace retirees; and replace leavers and changes in roles ▪ Our modelling estimates have been split by geography using a range of inputs, including current construction employment and activity, housing targets and dwelling stock ▪ The total employment requirement in the construction sector to reach targets totals 202,000 in London over the next decade; the largest need of the ten geographies studied. That equates to 16% of the 1.3 million need across the UK. Scotland’s requirements are just behind, at 96,000 over the next decade ▪ London will need at least 55,000 qualified construction apprentices over the next 10 years to unlock the potential to hit housebuilding and net zero targets and to replace leavers. Scotland will require a slightly lower 26,000
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