FROM THE DESK OF PORTER STANSBERRY
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Cola company. He depended on the stock market to guarantee he had the opportunity to retire. If that’s not your situation, you are very lucky. But for most people, they are counting on their stock investments to give them peace of mind and financial security for the future. So you can’t afford to be out of the market. Think about this. In the past 20 months or so – since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 51% ... That turns a $1 million retirement account into $1.5 million if you had just stayed in an S&P index fund... and I’m sure the number is far higher for the Nasdaq. That extra half a million makes a huge difference if you are trying to retire. And it is funny...
Frankly, it might be the only way at this point. And the best way to do that is by owning stocks. BUT... and this is a big BUT, Amy... if you are going to be an investor today, you need to have a plan in place for when you are going to sell. Because whether it is next week, next month, or next year, all of the problems that I’ve mentioned will materialize at some point. And I think sooner rather than later. AMY: But Porter – getting out of stocks at the right moment is a lot harder than it sounds... After all, most experts recommend a buy and hold strategy. That seems to fly in the face of common wisdom. PORTER: Well, if you are only holding the very best high quality stocks, that are capital efficient and regularly reward shareholders with large dividends, I agree the best holding time, as Buffett would say, is forever. And we have a lot of stocks in our model portfolio that we have owned for a decade or more. But most Americans don’t hold those kinds of stocks. Most Americans, sadly, own stocks that they are only emotionally invested in. That’s why, back in August 2009, I wrote an essay called “The 7 Real Secrets of the World’s Best Investors.”
because sometimes when I make a stock recommendation, I get criticized because my long-term view is so bearish on the dollar. But I believe there’s always opportunity if you look hard enough... and I’ve never used the problems I see with our currency as an excuse for not finding good stock opportunities. Like JDS Uniphase... Microsoft... W.R. Berkley... Hershey... AND American Financial... And even though there may be bubbles in certain asset classes... Owning America’s best businesses is still the absolute No. 1 way to protect and grow the value of your wealth today.
And the first secret I included on that list was, “Secret No. 1: You can time the market...” The reason I wrote that essay was because of how often readers would write to me or approach me at our conference following the great financial crisis and say: “Porter, I was reading your newsletters warning about the crash. Man, you were right on the money.” And I’d say, “Well great. How did you do?” And they’d tell me, “Oh, I didn’t do anything. I got killed.”
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