Table 2 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates) Line Percent Change at an Annual Rate 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 1 Gross Domestic Product Percentage Points at Annual Rates -31.2 33.8 4.5 6.3 6.7 2 2 Personal Consumption Expenditures -24.1 25.51 2.26 7.44 7.92 1.09 3 Goods -1.89 9.92 -0.07 5.69 2.99 -2.32 4 Durable Goods 0.01 5.49 0.1 3.5 1.01 -2.7 5 Nondurable Goods -1.9 4.43 -0.17 2.19 1.98 0.39 6 Services -22.21 15.59 2.34 1.75 4.93 3.4 7 Gross Private Domestic Investments -9.64 11.71 4.01 -0.37 -0.65 1.94 8 Fixed Investment -5.63 4.88 2.92 2.25 0.61 -0.14 9 Nonresidential -4.28 2.72 1.57 1.65 1.21 0.24 10 Structures -1.77 -0.46 -0.22 0.14 -0.08 -0.19 11 Equipment -1.99 2.73 1.29 0.75 0.66 -0.18 12 Intellectual Property Products -0.51 0.45 0.5 0.76 0.62 0.61 13 Residential -1.36 2.16 1.34 0.6 -0.6 -0.38 14 Change in Private Inventories -4.01 6.84 1.1 -2.62 -1.26 2.07 15 Net Exports of Goods and Services 1.53 -3.25 -1.65 -1.56 -0.18 -1.14 16 Exports -8.34 4.64 2.07 -0.3 0.8 -0.28 17 Goods -6.24 4.75 1.59 -0.1 0.48 -0.4 18 Services -2.09 -0.11 0.49 -0.2 0.32 0.12 19 Imports 9.87 -7.89 -3.73 -1.26 -0.99 -0.87 20 Goods 7.27 -7.37 -3.04 -1.21 -0.51 0.02 21 Services 2.59 -0.52 -0.69 -0.05 -0.48 -0.89 22 Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investments 0.97 -0.19 -0.09 0.77 -0.36 0.14 23 Federal 1.42 -0.32 -0.22 0.78 -0.38 -0.33 24 National Defense 0.16 0.11 0.22 -0.25 -0.04 -0.06 25 Nondefense 1.26 -0.43 -0.44 1.02 -0.34 -0.27 26 State and Local -0.45 0.13 0.14 -0.01 0.02 0.46 Bureau of Economic Analysis Description: • The above table decomposes percent changes in Real GDP into its components (consumption, investment, government, and net exports) and more specific subcomponents. Analysis: • For 2021 Q3, real GDP grew at a disappointing 2.0% (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) from second quarter numbers. Growth was well below the 6.7% increase in the second quarter. The contribution of personal consumption expenditures to real GDP fell sharply to only 1.09%. • In addition to the impact of the Delta variant on demand, supply chain constraints are likely the reason for a drop in personal consumption expenditures as a driver of growth. The contribution of durable goods expenditure to real GDP growth was -2.7%. • A number of Wall Street analysts are expecting a strong rebound in growth numbers for the fourth quarter.
12
Center for Business and Economic Insight
Made with FlippingBook Learn more on our blog