are still eclipsed by the sheer volume and value of the Mexican and Canadian markets combined. For 2024 and 2025, the U.S. exported $12.4 billion in fresh produce and nuts, and WG’s four home states were responsible for over 44 percent of that. For U.S. vegetables alone, 87 percent of all exports are destined for Canada and Mexico annually. As such, we immediately took notice that these countries were among the first targeted by President Trump for higher tariffs and national security demands. All things considered, the relationship with Mexico has continued to be relatively stable and collaborative. With our neighbor to the north, it is a different story and arguably the story of the past two years. President Trump’s words and actions toward Canada have been especially pointed, frequent and personal. The effect is that it has stirred up anti-American sentiment to a degree we are not seeing anywhere else, nor have probably seen in our lifetime. In a private conversation between California ag stakeholders and U.S.-based diplomatic officials this July, the message was clear: “It cannot be overstated just how [upset] Canadians are.” Franker language was used. Every day there is another media report interviewing Canadian retailers, describing customer demand to stock more Canadian-grown, or at least stock less of U.S.-grown. From direct talks with several WG exporting members, they have been on the receiving end of this ire directly with cancelled or reduced orders, demands that they share in added financial costs and pressure to source product grown in other countries. Will this all blow over once this administration has moved on in two years? For comparison, January 2018 saw the first shots fired in the U.S.-China trade conflict, and two years later the Phase One deal was signed. Further focus and tariffs on China continued under the Biden Administration, and this second Trump term has again had flare-ups, cool downs and another truce since last year. All told, since 2017 the average tariff rate into China for all U.S. goods has increased from 8 percent to 31 percent. For some fresh fruits and tree nuts that previously had major inroads into China, exports have dropped 20 percent or more since 2016. Other tree nuts had marked recoveries after the first trade war, but exports collapsed again last year when tariffs came back in the spotlight. As for the systemic non-tariff barriers that hinder
greater access to China—barriers the first Trump Administration made so central to its trade agenda—the needle has simply not moved. Today, U.S. ag exports still face an additional 10 percent baseline retaliatory tariff into China that has been kept since 2018. If history repeats itself, our industry stands to lose a lot in an unresolved U.S.-Canada conflict with little to gain. In response to initial U.S. tariff actions last year, Canada imposed a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on many U.S. products, including 12 fresh produce items. The tariff was in place only from March to July last year, but for those targeted categories there was a collective 33 percent decline when compared to the same period in 2024. If this snapshot gives us any indication as to how a broader and longer imposition of tariffs could go, it’s clear the impact would be substantial. Even if or when the verbal sparring cools and deals are ostensibly reached, some actions and shifts will likely stay the course. In Canada there are proposals for greater self-sufficiency and moving away from the U.S. as a primary source. Its recently announced National Food Security Strategy proposes $750 million toward controlled environment agriculture to “grow more vegetables and fruits in more places, making Canada less dependent on imports of these products.” Producers understand the time and effort it takes to build relationships with buyers and consumers, and what it means to rebuild. The value of diversifying markets notwithstanding, there is simply no replacing Canada or Mexico. We recognize the fluidity and politics surrounding international trade right now is especially heightened and sensitive. Nonetheless, WG has been vocal since day one that foreign competition is already tough in many markets, and further ruptures and lingering uncertainty give them more opportunities to keep displacing us. For these reasons we must capitalize on opportunities for new footholds in developing markets overseas, and we must diligently preserve—and build upon—what has long been established here in North America. [Author’s Note: Cited statistics are generated from USDA and Congressional Research Service databases and sources.]
9 Western Grower & Shipper | www.wga.com October – December 2026
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