A worked example, staging a fleet transition under uncertainty Consider, for example, a transit agency assessing whether to extend the life of an ageing fleet or accelerate replacement with low-emissions assets. The options are assessed against a consistent set of criteria covering emissions, service reliability, affordability and delivery risk. While full fleet replacement performs most strongly overall, funding remains uncertain, supplier capacity is constrained and near-term service requirements limit how quickly the transition can be delivered. Rather than committing to a single end state, the agency adopts a staged approach by aligning near- term replacements with confirmed funding and supplier availability while extending the life of remaining assets to maintain service continuity. This approach makes the associated trade-offs visible. Compared with immediate fleet replacement, the staged pathway slows emissions reductions and increases cumulative costs but reduces delivery risk and preserves operational flexibility. It also avoids committing capital before key uncertainties, including funding approvals and manufacturing lead times, have been resolved. Recognising that key uncertainties remain unresolved, the decision is structured around trigger points linked to funding milestones, supplier capacity and policy developments. These provide a mechanism for adjusting the transition pathway as conditions change, while governance is aligned through clear accountability for monitoring assumptions and revisiting decisions as those conditions are reached.
The strategy is credible not because uncertainty has been eliminated, but because it has been acknowledged, structured and actively managed through a defensible delivery pathway. The bottom line: decision quality beats ambition Over the next decade, the differentiator will not be ambition, but decision quality. Organisations that can make trade-offs explicit, sequence investment against real-world constraints and maintain flexibility as conditions change will move faster than those waiting for certainty. Infrastructure organisations cannot wait for perfect certainty before acting. Long asset lifecycles, evolving technologies and growing pressure to demonstrate measurable progress mean that critical decisions must often be made before future conditions are fully known. Ambition and high-level commitments alone are no longer sufficient to maintain credibility with investors, regulators, funders and communities. The goal is not perfect foresight, but disciplined, transparent and defensible decision-making under uncertainty.
Wruantsetrhe world
Yet it gets less than 1 percent of climate-tech investment. How smart metering is reshaping the way we manage water.
Bharat Khanna Executive Advisor, Commercial Advisory, GHD W ater underpins our lives, yet it remains consistently under-prioritised in government spending and development finance. The result is chronic under investment¹. According to the World Economic Forum, water receives less than one percent of global climate-tech investment, despite underpinning nearly every aspect of economic activity and daily life. It is also evident in the scale of unmet need with water- related infrastructure investment requirements estimated at USD 7 trillion by 2030 . It is also evident in the scale of unmet need with water-related infrastructure investment requirements estimated at USD 7 trillion by 2030².
This underinvestment is reflected in how water systems are monitored and managed, with a persistent gap between available digital capabilities and their integration into day-to-day operations. Despite growing interest in data driven solutions, adoption remains slow and often experimental, leaving many utilities reliant on fragmented data and limiting real-time insight into system performance. As a result, water systems lag behind other urban infrastructures, such as energy and transportation, where real-time monitoring and automated response are more widely adopted. Yet the opportunity is substantial. One of the most immediate and scalable of these solutions is Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI).
References 1. Neil Hawkins and Kelly Cooper, September 2025 “Are Companies Actually Scaling Back Their Climate Commitments?”, Harvard Business Impact Education 2. Science Based Targets, January 22, 2026 Corporate Climate Action Momentum Builds As SBTi Reaches 10,000 Companies With Validated Targets - Science Based Targets Initiative
4. UN Environment Programme, 2025/2026 edition Building fast. Falling short. As climate risks rise and cities grow, we must rethink how we build to create better lives for all - Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction 2025-2026 5. The Board of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions, July 2024 FR/07/2024 IOSCO Report on Transition Plans 6. International Energy Agency, Special Report 2025
3. Net Zero Tracker, Net Zero Stocktake 2025 Net Zero Stocktake 2025 | Net Zero Tracker
Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector 7. OECD, 2025, Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth (EN)
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