We are seeing a dramatic rebound across all sectors as we head into what looks to be a very heated spring market.
San Francisco Real Estate February 2026 Report with market data through January
While national home price appreciation is stuttering to a halt and many states and regions are seeing price declines, San Francisco's median home sales prices continue to surge higher, a dynamic we expect to see continue in 2026. The underlying factors are an extremely inadequate supply of homes for sale vs. rapidly increasing demand due to the AI startup boom. Very fast sales and competitive bidding wars between buyers have become the norm. Though the city’s house market has been seeing the lowest supply and highest demand, its condo market is also experiencing a dramatic rebound. Rents have also been in rapid ascent with the influx of young high-tech workers eager to work in AI. Interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets, though recently volatile, remain at or not too far off all-time highs. Local AI startup valuations have been skyrocketing with substantial effect on employee wealth. Though national consumer confidence remains low and employment concerns continue, they don’t appear to be impacting San Francisco. As has been the case in the past 2 years, more affluent buyers seem poised to play an outsized role in demand.
We anticipate a very heated spring market, and in the Bay Area “spring” often starts in February.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2026 YTD 30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
7.8
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on February 5, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.11%, remaining very close to its 2-year low.
7.6
7.4
7.2
Jan. 2025
7.0
Jan. 2024
6.8
6.6
Jan. 2023
6.4
Jan. 2026
6.2
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
6.0
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026 YTD Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
On 2/6/26, the Dow Jones Industrial Index, not illustrated here, hit a new high.
25%
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
20%
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
15%
10%
Updated through 2/6/26
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Tariff shock ►
-15%
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
-20%
-25%
Data per MarketWatch.com. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate. Financial markets can be prone to significant volatility even on a short-term basis.
Venture Capital Raised in 2025 In Billions of Dollars, by City/Region*
SF Bay Area
New York City
According to The Economist , the San Francisco Bay Area raised approximately 39% more venture capital in 2025 – estimated at $154 billion – than the next 10 cities/regions combined.*
London
Los Angeles
Boston
Paris
Austin
Seattle
Denver
Bangalore
Beijing
Billions of Dollars
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
*As published by The Economist on 1/27/26, using data from Dealroom. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed and may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990 Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in January 2026, $1,700,000, rose 12.4% year-over-year. On a single-month basis (not 3-month-rolling) the median house sales price in January rose over 16% year over year. Median sales prices typically peak in spring, though in 2025, they surged dramatically in fall.
2022
$2,000,000
2025
$1,800,000
2024
2018
2023
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Median sales prices typically peak for the year in spring.
$1,600,000
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,400,000
Interest rates soar ▲
$1,200,000
2007
$1,000,000
High-tech/IPO boom
$800,000
$600,000
Great recession
$400,000
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
$200,000
Updated through January 2026
$-
3-month rolling average of monthly median sales prices for “existing” houses, per CA Association of Realtors or 3-month rolling median per NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Median House Sales Price Appreciation San Francisco % Change in Annual Median Sales Price*
Before peak of dotcom boom
Comparing the 2025 median house sales price to annual median prices in previous years to calculate approximate appreciation rates over various periods of time. Appreciation has been accelerating rapidly since fall 2025 with the effects of the AI startup boom. Equity appreciation of cash investment (downpayment + closing costs) can be several orders of magnitude higher than appreciation of purchase price. Various tax benefits can also improve financial returns.
300%
250%
Inflation since 1999 was approximately 93%**
200%
150%
After 2008 market crash
Beginning of subprime boom
309%
100%
Beginning of high-tech boom
50%
Before the pandemic
1-year change
128%
124%
57%
5%
0%
6%
Since 2024
Since 2019
Since 2014
Since 2009
Since 2004
Since 1999
Appreciation rates are indicators of change rather than exact measurements of changes in value for any particular home.
*House sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Appreciation rates can change significantly depending on the exact dates of the calculation. All numbers approximate and percentages rounded. **Per BLS inflation calculator.
The 3-month-rolling median 2-bedroom condo sales price in January 2026, $1,300,000, hit its highest point since 2022, rising about 8.5% year over year.
San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005 Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes. Looking specifically at 2-bedroom condos helps to ensure that price trends are comparing apples to apples.
2022
2019
$1,400,000
2017
2025
$1,300,000
2023 - 2024
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,200,000
Interest rates soar ▲
$1,100,000
$1,000,000
$900,000
2007-2008
Foreclosure crisis & great recession
$800,000
$700,000
Updated through January 2026
$600,000
3-month rolling median condo sales prices reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median Condo Sales Price Appreciation San Francisco % Change in Annual Median Sales Price*
Comparing the 2025 median condo sales price to annual median sales prices in previous years to calculate approximate appreciation rates over various periods of time. Since the pandemic hit, the overall SF condo market has experienced a median sales price decline. The median price has been rising in the last 2 years, and appreciation has been accelerating since fall 2025 with the AI startup boom.
Before peak of dotcom boom
190%
165%
Inflation since 1999 was approximately 93%**
140%
115%
Beginning of subprime boom
90%
After 2008 market crash
186%
65%
40%
Beginning of high-tech boom
Before the pandemic
1-year change
71%
83%
15%
1%
21%
-5%
-10%
Since 2024
Since 2019
Since 2014
Since 2009
Since 2004
Since 1999
Appreciation rates are indicators of change rather than exact measurements of changes in value for any particular home.
*Condo sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Appreciation rates can change significantly depending on the exact dates of the calculation. All numbers approximate and percentages rounded. **Per BLS inflation calculator.
The 3-month-rolling median $/sq.ft. house value in November 2025 rose about 7.5% year over year; the median condo value rose about 3.5%.
San Francisco Value Trends since 2005 3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
2022
$1,200
Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
$1,100
2025
2024
2023
$1,000
$900
Condos
$800
Houses
2005-2006-2007-2008
$700
$600
$500
$400
Great recession & foreclosure crisis
$300
Updated through January 2026
$200
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown 12-Month-Rolling, Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices since 2005*
Comparing median 2-bedroom condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new- condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – the blue line – with the rest of San Francisco ( mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – the green line.
2018
2022
$1,400,000
2016
$1,300,000
Pandemic hits ▲
$1,200,000
2023 -2024 - 2025
Median sales prices also vary widely within these two broad regions.
$1,100,000
Condo Market in Non-Downtown Area
$1,000,000
Greater Downtown/SoMa Condo Market
2007-2008
$900,000
$800,000
NOTE: 12-month-rolling sales data smooths the median sales price trend lines and removes seasonality from the analysis, but it can lag short-term changes in 2025 .
$700,000
Great recession, foreclosure crisis
Updated through January 2026
$600,000
*12-month rolling median condo sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project sales unreported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
The number of new listings typically climbs through spring, declines in mid-summer, soars in September, and plunges in December. The number of new listings in January 2026 rebounded from the usual December low but was down 19% year over year, exacerbating the egregious shortage of inventory.
New Listings Coming on Market San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
Sept. 2021
Spring 2022
1,000
Sept. 2023
Spring 2021
Sept. 2022
Sept. 2024
Sept. 2025
800
April 2024
April 2025
May 2023
600
Mid- summer
Mid- summer
400
Mid- summer
Mid- summer
200
Mid- summer
Updated through January 2026
0
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Homes Market Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1 st of Month*
As of 2/1/26, the number of listings was rebounding from the midwinter nadir but fell 27% year over year - by far the lowest Feb. 1st count in 4+ years. 29% of listings were houses, 60% condos, 9% TICs and 2% co-ops. Listing inventory will continue to rise through summer or fall.*
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
200
Updated February 1, 2026
0
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
Number of HOUSES for Sale by Bay Area County, as of 2/1/26*
Contra Costa
900
County population: 1,172,600
Santa Clara
County population: 1,926,300
777
County population: 1,649,000
Alameda
737
Sonoma
County population:
485,400
552
Generally speaking, inventory levels in most Bay Area real estate markets are very low, but San Francisco’s supply of houses for sale is staggeringly low as compared to its population. As of 2/1/26, Napa County, with 16% of SF’s population, had more houses on the market. Since demand is increasing in the city, this puts immense pressure on its house prices.
San Mateo
385
County population:
743,000
Solano
355
County population:
455,100
Napa
County population: 132,700
276
San Francisco
185
County population: 827,500
Population numbers per 7/1/24 Census estimates.
Marin
168
County population: 256,400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
*Active and coming-soon house listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance on 2/1/26. Does not include other property type listings, such as condos, TICs and co-ops. Not all listings are posted to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Listing numbers change constantly.
Market conditions can vary dramatically due to seasonal trends in supply & demand. As of 2/1/26, as the new year’s market is waking up from the midwinter holidays, inventory levels are extremely low.
San Francisco Residential Market Market Dynamics by Price Segment/Property Type
Price/ Prop. Type Under $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $1,999,999 $2,000,000 - $2,999,999 $3,000,000 - $4,999,999 $5,000,000 - $7,499,999 $7,500,000 - $9,999,999
# Listings for Sale*
# Listings in Contract*
Monthly Rate of Sales**
Supply of Inventory***
Avg. Days on Market**
Sales Over List Price**
Avg. Sales Price to LP %**
284
95
116 sales/mo.
2.4 months
66 days
31%
97.5%
225
98
196 sales/mo.
1.1 months
34 days
64%
109%
67
24
63 sales/mo.
1.1 months
26 days
73%
111%
42
8
32 sales/mo.
1.3 months
34 days
59%
106%
16
2
6 sales/mo.
2.7 months
45 days
33%
98.5%
6
2
4 sales/mo.
1.5 months
52 days
20%
97%
$10 Million+
12
0
2 sales/mo.
6 months
4%
88.5%
too few sales
Houses
185
91
192 sales/mo.
1 month
27 days
75%
112.5%
Condos
389
113
189 sales/mo.
2.1 months
56 days
36%
100%
TICs
59
20
27 sales/mo.
2.2 months
54 days
46%
100.5%
Co-ops
13
7
5.5 sales/mo.
2.4 months
71 days
16%
97.5%
*Active/Coming-Soon Listings & Listings in Contract posted to MLS as of 2/1/26. **Sales statistics per last 12 months of sales, i.e., the annualized rate of activity. ***Months Supply of Inventory measures approx. time required to sell listings for sale at estimated annualized rate of sale: Lower readings signify higher demand compared to supply. Market activity typically ebbs and flows to seasonal trends.
Data reported to NorCal MLS Alliance and Infosparks, may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all activity is reported to MLS. All numbers approximate. Statistics based on annualized activity may not apply to current conditions and can be distorted by outlier data (especially in low sales volumes). Listing/sales numbers change constantly.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Demand, as measured by the number of listings going into contract, typically climbs through spring, declines in summer, rebounds in early fall, and plunges in December.
March 2022
Oct. 2021
700
Sales activity in SF is being constrained by the extremely low number of homes available to buy.
Interest rates soar
Sept.-Oct. 2025
600
May 2025
Oct. 2024
Spring 2024
500
Spring 2023
Oct. 2022
Oct. 2023
400
Summer
Summer
Summer
300
December
Summer
200
December
December
December
December
Updated through January 2026
100
Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Will not include new-project condo activity not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month
Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
Fall 2025
30%
The SF market shifted dramatically in fall 2025. The absorption rate in January 2026 was 45% higher than in January 2025.
Spring 2022
25%
Spring 2025
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
October
20%
October
October
15%
10%
5%
Updated through January 2026
0%
*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not all new-condo project activity is reported to MLS. Last month’s data estimated using available data and may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision . All numbers approximate.
Monthly Home Sales Volume* San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. January generally reflects the slow holiday market of December and early January. Sales are being constrained by the exceedingly low inventory of listings for sale. House sales made up approximately 38% of January 2026 sales; condos made up 47%; co-ops, 4.5%; TICs, 8%; and townhouses, 2.5%.
June 2021
800
Fall 2021
Spring 2022
700
Oct. 2025
600
Pandemic boom
Spring 2024
Oct. 2024
Spring 2025
500
Spring 2023
Oct. 2023
400
300
200
100
▲ Interest rates soar
Updated through January 2026
0
*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Sales Prices of $5,000,000+
June 2021
Fall 2021
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring and fall typically the most active markets of the year.
25
Oct. 2025
Spring 2022
20
May 2025
Oct. 2024
Spring 2024
| Peak of pandemic boom |
15
Oct. 2023
Oct. 2022
Spring 2023
10
5
Updated through January 2026
0
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. They typically peak in October before the mid-winter holidays.
Price Reductions on Active Listings San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Oct. 2020
500
Oct. 2022
The number of price reductions in January 2026 declined 33% year over year.
450
Oct. 2023
400
350
Oct. 2024
300
May 2025
Oct. 2021
250
200
150
100
| Peak of pandemic boom |
50
Updated through January 2026
0
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier. Overbidding is generally caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall overbidding percentage in the latest month was 46% of sales (up from 37% in January 2025). For houses alone, it was 73%, and for condos, 26%.
April 2022
Fall 2021
75%
More overbidding ▲
May 2024
Oct. 2024
May 2025
65%
Nov. 2025
2020 pandemic market
June 2023
Oct. 2023
55%
Mid- Winter
45%
35%
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Mid- Winter
Updated through January 2026
25%
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.
April 2022
This chart illustrates the average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage for all residential sales, but in January 2026, for houses alone the average was 15% above list price, and for condos, 2% under list price.
Spring-Autumn 2021
110%
Nov. 2025
Spring 2025
Spring 2024
105%
Spring-Autumn 2023
Pandemic Year 1
100%
100% = an average sales price at original list price.
Updated through January 2026
95%
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
This chart illustrates average days on market for all residential sales, but houses have been selling much, much faster than other property types. January sales mostly reflect market conditions in December, the slowest month of the year.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Homes usually sell fastest in spring and early autumn – with the rush of new listings – and slowest in mid-winter (when the inventory of listings is at its oldest).
80
Jan. 2024
Jan. 2026
Jan. 2025
70
Jan. 2021
Jan. 2023
Jan. 2022
60
50
40
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
Spring 2025
30
Spring 2021
Spring 2022
Updated through January 2026
20
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981 & Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated January 28, 2026
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There was no change in January.
20
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
18
16
Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
14
2022/2023: counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024 Acting to
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
12
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
10
8
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
6
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
4
High-tech & pandemic booms
2
Subprime boom
0
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index* By Month since January 2000
April 2025
450
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.* The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in January 2026 to a level very high by long-term standards.
Tariff shock ►
400
Pandemic hits
350
300
January 2026
250
Dotcom crash & 9/11
200
150
Subprime crash & great recession
100
2025
Updated through January 2026
50
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3- component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html. Data from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.
California Population Trends since 2010 U.S. Census Estimates, July 1 st to July 1 st
Changes measured from July 1 st of previous year to July 1 st of labeled year.
39,500,000
39,000,000
38,500,000
Pandemic hits ▲
38,000,000
37,500,000
37,000,000
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the state, and by natural causes, i.e. births less deaths. In recent years, the state has experienced negative domestic migration, positive foreign migration, and more births than deaths.
36,500,000
36,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Estimates as of July 1 of each year, published 1/27/26 by U.S. Census. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate and may be revised in future estimates.
The Census estimates population changes from July 1 st to July 1 st .
California: Components of Population Change*
CA population changes in recent years have been characterized by 1) many more residents moving to other states than moving into CA (negative net domestic migration), 2) high net foreign immigration, and 3) more births than deaths (natural cause). Total population was essentially unchanged in the last year (down .02%) but has declined since the pandemic hit. Due to new federal policies, net foreign immigration plunged 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further – and perhaps turn negative (more immigrants leaving than arriving).
July 1, 2024 – July 1, 2025
April 1, 2020 – July 1, 2025
109,715
109,278
973,812
Since the Pandemic Hit
1,000,000
100,000
531,304
Net Foreign Immigration
50,000
500,000
Net Foreign Immigration
0
0
Natural Cause
(9,465)
Net Domestic Migration
Natural Cause
Total Population Change
-50,000
(200,394)
-500,000
Net Domestic Migration
Total Population Change
Last 12-Month Period
-100,000
-1,000,000
-150,000
Foreign immigration declined 65% year over year in the last 12-month period.
-1,500,000
-200,000
(1,691,867)
(229,077)
-250,000
-2,000,000
*Estimates published 1/27/26 by U.S. Census. All numbers approximate, may contain errors, and may be revised in future estimates. Census numbers will not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
California 2024 Migration Trends*
In-Migration States with the highest number of residents moving into state in 2024
Out-Migration States receiving the highest number of residents moving out of state in 2024
Colorado
Tennessee
15,781
19,670
Florida
Colorado
15,988
19,717
Oregon
Virginia
17,954
20,180
Substantial two-way traffic between states is common.
Virginia
New York
18,100
31,367
Illinois
Oregon
19,953
31,500
Nevada
Florida
21,133
36,194
New York
Washington
24,927
43,938
Washington
Arizona
26,956
52,383
Arizona
Nevada
28,174
53,289
Texas
Texas
45,447
77,161
Total In-Migration from other states: 406,873 In-Migration from abroad/U.S. islands: 306,867
Total Out-Migration to other states: 661,205 Residents moving within state: 3,339,836
*Per U.S. Census 1-Year ACS estimates released 1/21/26: Published with significant margins of error. https://www.census.gov/topics/population/migration/guidance/state-to-state-migration-flows.html. State population is also affected by births and deaths, and residents moving abroad. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco Bay Area Unemployment Rates Selected Bay Area Counties, since 2019
Contra Costa
14%
Alameda County
12%
San Francisco
10%
San Mateo County
8%
Santa Clara County
Unemployment rates have been falling since peaking in July 2025.
Marin County
6%
4%
2%
Pandemic hits
Updated through December 2025
0%
Estimates per CA Employment Development Dept. (EDD). Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. EDD often revises estimates in later reports.
Federal Government Employment by Month since January 2012*
Federal government employment fell by 274,000 in 2025— the largest decline in any calendar year since 1946. Through November, the Dept. of Defense shed 68,000 jobs, federal hospitals shed 16,000 jobs, the Postal Service lost 6,000, and other Federal agencies, 185,000. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) added 12,000 employees.
3,150,000
3,050,000
New administration begins |
Federal government employment spikes every 10 years because of temporary hiring for the decennial census. →
2,950,000
2,850,000
2,750,000
Oct. – Dec. 2025 ↑
2,650,000
*Per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES9091000001. Seasonally adjusted. Data for last 2 months is preliminary. Data from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed. All numbers approximate and subject to revision.
Bitcoin Price By Day since March 7, 2024
10/6/25 ▼
$130,000
$120,000
$110,000
$100,000
$90,000
▲ 2025 begins
$80,000
Tariff shock ►
2/6/26
$70,000
▲ Election
On 2/6/26, bitcoin saw a large rebound in price but remains far below its high 4 months ago.
$60,000
March 2024
$50,000
Data per https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/cryptocurrency/btc/historical. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Cryptocurrency values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Per https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales. Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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