The socio-economic impact of businesses in the railway arches
Estimated economic impact
Employment
7.5
At present, approximately 70% of space in the portfolio is occupied. If the remaining space were to be occupied, and assuming that it adheres to the same mix of use classes as the occupied space, then an additional 8,200 FTEs could be supported. 51 This uplift is presented in Table 7.1 , which breaks the current and potential economic impact into FTEs and jobs.
Table 7.1 – The Arch Company portfolio supports an estimated 30,300 jobs, with the potential to rise to 40,000 if fully occupied
Estimated FTEs and jobs supported within The Arch Company portfolio
Estimated FTEs supported
Estimated total jobs supported
Currently supported in occupied spaces
25,600
30,300
Maximum impact if all spaces occupied
33,800
40,000
Source: Volterra estimates, 2023.
Economic activity
7.6
Were all the spaces in the portfolio to be occupied, this would support an additional estimated total of £630m in GVA each year (across both London and others areas of the UK), bringing the total for the whole portfolio to £2.6bn . Additionally, if all spaces within the portfolio were to be occupied, an estimated additional £190m to £250m would be derived from annual tax revenues.
Indirect and induced economic effects
7.7
The additional direct FTEs would support an estimated £15m in additional yearly worker expenditure. The impacts of this, as well as the increased supply chain and indirect impacts the new FTEs would support, are presented in Table 7.2.
Table 7.2 – Number of direct FTEs supported by organisations within The Arch Company property by use class and indirect FTEs supported within the supply chain
Direct FTEs
Indirect FTEs
Induced FTEs
Total (current occupation)
25,600
16,100
1,400
Total (if all spaces occupied)
33,800
21,200
1,800
Source: Volterra estimates, 2023. The Arch Company internal data, 2023. NB: Figures are rounded and do not sum.
51 The uplift applied to estimate the total economic potential of the portfolio utilises the current split of economic activity and use types in the occupied properties. As vacant spaces are often unclassified in terms of use class, this assumption of the future portfolio being brought forward in a similar composition to the currently occupied properties is considered a reasonable one. A proportion of properties are currently occupied but used for activities that don’t support direct economic activity, such as residential or railway uses. This is accounted for in the uplift calculation – i.e. that a proportion of vacant properties would be brought into a non-employment supporting use – to remain conservative.
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