The Physician Shortage: Projections, Causes, and Solutions
Physician Shortage Projections/HRSA
The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) is another source that is widely referenced in regard to physician supply and demand projections.
HRSA’s November 2023 report: Physician Workforce: Projections, 2020-2035 offers additional metrics quantifying projected physician shortages by specialty over the next decade.
Nationally, across all specialties, HRSA projects a shortage of 57,259 full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians by 2025, with FTE physicians defined as those working 40 hours or more per week: It projects a shortage of 81,180 physicians by 2035 (see below):
Projected Physician Shortages
2025
2030
2035
SUPPLY
909,720
940,690
982,640
DEMAND
966,970
1,019,770
1,063,820
SHORTAGE
(57,259)
(79,080)
(81,180)
Source: Physician Workforce Projections, 2020-2035. HRSA. November 2023.
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