CH. 2 - CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES - CH.2
The Corridor can support a range of different uses over the next 20 years &255,'25<($5'(0$1')25(&$67 The Corridor can support a range of different uses over the next 20 years The Corridor can support a range of different uses over the next 20 years &255,'25<($5'(0$1')25(&$67
MARKET ANALYSIS Demand Projections
Single-family Residential Single-family homes account for 64% of the existing corridor housing stock and are present in all subareas outside of Downtown. There is potential for new single- family development across the corridor, but demand is strongest north of the Riverview neighborhood, where there are some larger sites that could accommodate subdivision development. Townhome developments are also likely feasible across most of the corridor. Overall, demand is projected for 680 single-family homes across the corridor. The sections of the corridor that lack large-scale sites for single-family housing can meet demand through infill development on vacant parcels. It is recommended that investments strategically concentrate on one block at a time to reconnect the urban fabric in neighborhoods with high vacancy. Retail Currently, several of the major retail centers in the corridor are significantly under-performing and require creative infill strategies. The strongest retail centers are located at the two ends of the corridor, in the Brooklyn neighborhood and near Armsdale Station, respectively. It is recommended that retail be consolidated in these centers as well as the Gateway Town Center to improve retail performance across the corridor. Smaller, weaker retail centers with high vacancy should be repositioned as smaller, convenience retail nodes and/or partially redeveloped with institutional, flex, and residential uses. Minimal demand is projected — 150,000 square feet in total — of additional retail space in the corridor. New space should concentrate in and around the well-performing retail centers on either end of the corridor. Future retail development is unlikely to occur in the near term, as any meaningful retail development must be preceded by residential growth.
The corridor market demand was analyzed by product type. The corridor has over 1,000 acres of vacant and underutilized land that could accommodate new development. Based on both the projected market demand and site capacity, the corridor could capture a significant amount of new development over the next 20 years. The 20 year forecast was developed using multiple public and private data sources, and refined with information gathered from interviewing local practitioners. Historic supply trends, population growth, planned projects, and site capacity, among other factors, were considered in preparing the total and subarea forecasts The following sections summarize 20-year demand by product type. Multifamily Residential T he Green Line corridor has a median household income of $31,000, significantly lower than that for the City of Jacksonville. This is in part due to the high concentration of deed restricted affordable housing within the corridor. While the corridor is home to about 3% of Duval County’s population, it contains 18% of the County’s income- restricted units. Both residents and developers indicated a desire for greater mixed-income and market-rate residential development within the corridor. It is projected that there is demand for 6,710 multifamily units over the next 20 years in the corridor. In particular, there is significant opportunity to increase market-rate multifamily in and around Downtown. The Brooklyn neighborhood has had several market-rate projects delivered in the last five years which have proven the market. Other Downtown-adjacent neighborhoods can build off this development momentum. LaVilla, which has many large, vacant sites, is likely to transition from mixed-income rental to market-rate rental development in the near term, due to its proximity to Brooklyn, Downtown, and planned infrastructure improvements. The Downtown subarea was allocated 5,770 multifamily units of the total demand forecast. Other subareas are each assumed to absorb one to two projects on strategic sites to meet the remaining market demand.
Continued infill, concentrate investments one block at a time Continued infill, concentrate investments one block at a time Continued infill, concentrate investments one block at a time SINGLE-FAMILY 680 UNITS SINGLE-FAMILY 680 UNITS SINGLE-FAMILY 680 UNITS
Recent mixed income projects downtown have proven the market; expand into surrounding neighborhoods MULTIFAMILY 6,710 UNITS MULTIFAMILY 6,710 UNITS MULTIFAMILY 6,710 UNITS Recent mixed income projects downtown have proven the market; expand into surrounding neighborhoods expand into surrounding neighborhoods Recent mixed income projects downtown have proven the market;
RETAIL 150,000 SQ FT RETAIL 150,000 SQ FT
OFFICE 1.9 M SQ FT OFFICE 1.9 M SQ FT
HOTEL 470 KEYS HOTEL 470 KEYS
CATALYTIC INCREASE XX* SQ FT CATALYTIC INCREASE XX* SQ FT Catalytic increase in development depends on success of large-scale redevelopments and premium level of transit (15-min headways, offboard fare collection, etc.) *Future work Catalytic increase in development depends on success of large-scale redevelopments and premium level of transit (15-min headways, offboard fare collection, etc.) *Future work
RETAIL 150,000 SQ FT
OFFICE 1.9 M SQ FT
HOTEL 470 KEYS
CATALYTIC INCREASE XX* SQ FT
Consolidate retail to improve performance of existing centers Consolidate retail to improve Consolidate retail to improve performance of existing centers performance of existing centers
Additional development beyond pipeline depends on creation of walkable mixed- use district downtown Additional development beyond pipeline depends on creation of walkable mixed- use district downtown use district downtown
Limited near-term growth due to national instability in office market, development most likely on downtown waterfront sites Limited near-term growth due to national instability in office market, development most likely on downtown waterfront sites
Additional development beyond pipeline depends on creation of walkable mixed-
Catalytic increase in development depends on success of large-scale redevelopments and premium level of transit (15-min headways, offboard fare collection, etc.) *Future work
Limited near-term growth due to national instability in office market, development most likely on downtown waterfront sites
Other Land Uses The national office market is currently weak post-COVID. As a result, there is essentially no near-term potential in the corridor for speculative office development. Even prior to the COVID recession, Downtown Jacksonville had only seen build-to-suit office development for several decades. Potential for office may increase as Downtown becomes a more vibrant, mixed-use destination. There will likely be some continued build-to-suit office development in the Downtown. The best office sites are generally located along the waterfront. There is also potential for medical office, a growing product type, in the properties surrounding UF Health/Shands. Overall, it is projected that the Downtown and UF Health subareas can accommodate 1.9 million square feet of office development in the next 20 years. There are few hotels immediately in the Downtown, but some new projects are in development pipeline. Like with office, there may be more potential for hotel development once a stronger mixed-use environment gets established. Source: Esri, SB Friedman Source: Esri, SB Friedman Source: Esri, SB Friedman
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Most industrial activity in Jacksonville occurs outside the corridor. Due to the existing land uses, there is very limited potential for industrial development within the corridor, though last-mile distribution facilities, light manufacturing, and call centers are a possibility, particularly on the north end which is closer to the airport and existing industrial clusters. The trade-off between the desire for transit oriented development and job generating uses is an important policy consideration. Catalytic Development The corridor does have the potential to capture development beyond the demand projections with the right interventions. A catalytic increase in development depends on the success of large-scale redevelopments, public-private partnership opportunities, and improvement of the BRT. BRT has the potential to attract additional investment to the corridor but only when service meets key criteria including 15-minute maximum headways, offboard fare collection, level boarding, and other BRT best practices. Additional details can be found in Appendix B – Market Study.
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Northwest Jacksonville Connects: Green Line TOD Study Final Report | Jacksonville Transit Authority
Northwest Jacksonville Connects: Green Line TOD Study Final Report | Jacksonville Transit Authority
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