FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
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REGIONAL MARKET OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC AND MARKET FINDING
Demographic Characteristics & Economic Conditions » Population increases along the corridor have been driven by growth in southern Duval County and northern St. Johns County. St. Johns’ population has than doubling in the last twenty years going from around 125,000 to close to 280,000 with an average annual growth rate 3.5% in the last ten years. » Northern St. Johns County is the wealthiest area along the corridor, containing many census tracts where median household income is over $100,000. Downtown Jacksonville and Southern Duval County have more economic diversity, but in general are less wealthy than St. Johns County households. In 2020, the median household income in Duval County was $56,800 compared to $83,800 in St. Johns. » Duval County is significantly more racially diverse than St. Johns County, the 49% of the population was non- white in 2020 compared to only 18% in St. Johns. Both counties have become increasingly diverse since 2010. » Regional growth has been fueled by job growth, with employment growing by 2%, about 9,000 jobs, in Duval County and by 4.2%, about 5,000 jobs, in St. Johns County annually since 2012. » While healthcare and financial services are responsible for Duval County’s economic growth, transportation and warehousing jobs have been a faster growing sector since 2010, increasing 74% or 19,500 jobs. Service jobs, especially in the retail and accommodation and food services industries, are driving the job growth in St. Johns County, having increased 77%, almost 7,000 jobs, since 2010.
Real Estate Market Conditions
To reflect shared demographic and real estate characteristics among select station areas, quantify the potential demand around the selected stations, and understand market strengths and constraints for residential, office, retail, industrial, and hospitality users; three submarkets were identified along the FCCR corridor:
Industrial Market Findings » Duval County has a very robust, logistics industrial market with large floorplates and large pieces of land, that has been enabled by proximity to the Port of Jacksonville. » Industrial development has been heavily concentrated in Duval County but has also been growing in St. Johns County for the last several years. Jobs added in this sector clearly reflect this trend. » Although larger industrial parks have been developed in northern Duval County, industrial development proximate to commuter rail stations will need to be a carefully considered policy decision to ensure that opportunities for higher density transit-oriented uses are preserved. Hospitality Market Findings » Duval County had a boom in hotel room inventory around 2000 and again at the end of the decade before maintaining stable growth since. St. Johns County also has increased inventory but at a slower, more stable rate. » St. Johns County hotel rooms go for higher rates than Duval’s, but both counties' rates have followed the same trends, dipping around 2010 and again in 2021 before rising to recent highs in 2022. » The upscale hotels are concentrated around the beaches with a mix of economy, midscale, and upscale hotels dispersed around the residential areas of the counties.
Residential Market Findings » Duval County has increased its share of renters to almost half off all occupied households while St. Johns County remains an owner-occupied area. Since 2010, the share of renters in Duval County has increased to 43% of occupied households in 2020 from 37%. St. Johns County remains an owner-occupied area; in 2020, 81% of households were owner occupied, up from 77% in 2010. » Multifamily deliveries have been driven by large, new, suburban development in eastern Duval County and high-rise buildings in Downtown Jacksonville. Since 2010, over 21,000 units have been delivered in Duval and 2,500 in St. Johns. » Most multifamily units delivered in the last 10 years in Duval are rentals, with no growth in for sale units. Meanwhile in St. Johns, the share of owner-occupied multifamily units has almost doubled. Office Market Findings » As a major city, Jacksonville’s economy drives demand for jobs in the region. By number of employees, the largest industries are healthcare, retail, finance and insurance, and hospitality. » Growth in office using jobs such as health care, government, finance and insurance in Duval and healthcare and other services in St. Johns have led to office development in both counties. » While there is a concentration of office inventory in downtown Jacksonville, there are many office parks and buildings in Duval County’s suburban neighborhoods, particularly to the south along highway I-95. » Suburban office development has been driven primarily by larger, build-to-suit, standalone office buildings in southern Duval and in St. Johns. Retail Market Findings » Large suburban shopping centers have been following new residential development further away from mixed- use urban cores, where land is cheaper, available, and along highways. » Since 2017, deliveries have decreased in Duval County while they have increased in St. Johns County, mainly driven by retail development along Racetrack Road.
1. Downtown Jacksonville, including the JRTC station;
2. Southern Duval – Northern St Johns , including the Baymeadows, Avenues Walk, and CR 210 stations; 3. Greater St. Augustine, including Palencia, King Street, and SR 312 stations. The submarkets, illustrated in Figure 3-29, extend a 2-mile radius around the corridor for the station areas identified. Submarket 1 captures Jacksonville’s central business district (CBD). Submarket 2 follows along U.S Highway 1 and captures the southside of Jacksonville, parts of the J. Turner Butler Boulevard corridor, down to the northern border of St. Johns County on CR 210. This area is characterized by high population growth and strong development pipelines, especially for multifamily. Submarket 3 captures the Palencia planned community and points south, including the City of St. Augustine. Mostly tourism-driven, Submarket 3 has some recent developments but fewer pipeline projects than Submarkets 1 and 2.
SUBMARKET 1 DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE
JRTC
BAYMEADOWS
SUBMARKET 2 SOUTHERN DUVAL & NORTHERN ST. JOHNS
AVENUES WALK
CR 210
PALENCIA
SUBMARKET 3 GREATER ST. AUGUSTINE
KING STREET SR 312
Figure 3-29: FCCR STUDY AREA AND IDENTIFIED SUBMARKETS
FCCR TOD
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