FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
132
133
For each submarket and the region, Table 3-16 shows the calculations leading to the cumulative rental demand over the next 20 years as well as the average annual rental demand. Applying appropriate capture rates8 to the average annual rental demand, the average annual captures are as follows: Market-Rate Multifamily Rental » Downtown Jacksonville (Submarket 1): 67 to 82 units » Southern Duval-Northern St. Johns (Submarket 2): 152 to 185 units » Greater St. Augustine (Submarket 3): 56 to 68 units » Region: 1,338 to 1,635 units Middle Income Multifamily Rental » Downtown Jacksonville (Submarket 1): 55 to 67 units » Southern Duval-Northern St. Johns (Submarket 2): 94 to 115 units » Greater St. Augustine (Submarket 3): 30 to 37 units » Region: 826 to 1,009 units Affordable Multifamily Rental » Downtown Jacksonville (Submarket 1): 101 to 124 units » Southern Duval-Northern St. Johns (Submarket 2): 136 to 166 units » Greater St. Augustine (Submarket 3): 48 to 58 units » Region: 1,122 to 1,371 units
Lastly, Table 3-17 adds together the market-rate, middle income, and affordable demand results into aggregate demand results. The low scenario adds the three demands at an 18% capture rate, whereas the high scenario adds the three demands at a 22% capture rate. For example, for Downtown Jacksonville (Submarket 1), the low scenario of 224 units equals 67 market-rate units plus 55 middle income units plus 101 affordable units9.
Table 3-16: MARKET RATE, MIDDLE INCOME, AND AFFORDABLE MULTIFAMILY DEMAND RESULTS Source: American Community Survey (ACS) data via Esri Business Analyst; CoStar; Urban Land Institute
8 The capture rate for affordable housing can be higher than for market-rate housing, with the rationale that any new affordable units built will be absorbed because a greater number of households are income eligible for these units. 9 The average annual net absorptions for the last decade (2011-2022 YTD), calculated using CoStar data, serve as references for the aggregate demand results: 205 units (Submarket 1), 127 units (Submarket 2), 61 units (Submarket 3), and 1,910 units (the region).
Table 3-17: AGGREGATE MULTIFAMILY DEMAND RESULTS
FCCR TOD
Made with FlippingBook - Share PDF online