FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
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OFFICE DEMAND
A demand analysis was conducted to understand the market potential for new office space in the submarkets and the region. The analysis relied on past industry trends as indicators of future growth and assumed a standard square footage per employee in different industries to project office space demand. The office demand analysis methodology consists of the following steps: Step 1 . Job growth: Using historic and projected employment data for the region, the analysis estimates projected job growth in each submarket. Step 2 . Office-using jobs: Defines which and how many industries’ jobs use office space. Step 3 . Office space: Project the demand for new office space (adjusted for vacancy), using the average gross square feet (GSF) assigned per employee and the projected office-using job growth. 10 Step 4 . Submarket capture: To estimate a reasonable capture rate for each submarket, the analysis considers the average of the submarkets’ office absorption over the last 10 years and current share of regional office pipeline development. Using a blend of the two rates incorporates both past and future trends into the projections. According to EMSI, the region is projected to add a total of 147,800 new jobs across all industries from 2023 to 2042. As shown in Figure 3-49, employment will grow the most in Health Care and Social Assistance, Accommodation and Food Services, Transportation and Warehousing, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Office-using industries will also continue to grow in the region, especially Health Care and Social Assistance. This growth will potentially generate demand for office space. From 2023 to 2042, the region is forecasted to add 60,640 jobs in the office-using industries shown in Figure 3-49.
Based on estimated averages of 225 net square feet (NSF) of office space per Health Care and Social Assistance employee and 250 NSF of office space per employee in other the industries shown in Figure 3-49 (bottom), the additional jobs will create an estimated demand for 16,871,800 SF of office space in Duval County and St. Johns County by 2042. To estimate a reasonable capture rate for the FCCR corridor, the analysis considers the corridors’ average absorption rate of office space over the past 10 years and current share of office pipeline development. The submarkets’ capture rate ranges from 30% to 40% of the region, which accounts for fluctuation in office trends. Of the three submarkets, Downtown Jacksonville shows the highest fluctuation within this range given the highest concentration of jobs in the area. This regional demand could align with approximately 253,000 to 337,000 SF of office space in the submarkets over the next 20 years. Table 3-18 shows the net new supportable office space in the submarkets and the region. Based on current trends, speculative office development would be limited and most new development would be build-to-suit or anchored by companies looking to expand or position themselves in the region.
JOBS IN DUVAL AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY (2023-2043)
OFFICE USING JOBS IN DUVAL AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY (2023-2043)
Figure 3-49: PROJECTED JOB GROWTH (2023-2042)
Source: : Emsi
Note: Data excludes self-employed workers. Data for 2022-2033 is based on Emsi projections. Data beyond 2033 is based on projections derived from Emsi employment data for 2005-2021.
10 All numbers are not adjusted to account for the current office pipeline in the submarkets and the region. Future pipeline and churn will also meet a share of demand.
Table 3-18: NET NEW SUPPORTABLE OFFICE SPACE (2023-2042)
Source: : Study team analysis
FCCR TOD
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