FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
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RETAIL DEMAND
i. Strip Centers, are attached rows of stores or service outlets managed as a coherent retail entity whose tenants provide a narrow mix of goods and personal services to a very limited trade area. ii. Community Centers, also known as large neighborhood centers, include general merchandise or convenience-oriented offerings with a wider range of apparel and other soft goods offerings than a neighborhood center. Typical anchors include discount stores or supermarkets. iii. Neighborhood Centers include convenience- oriented retail and are typically anchored by supermarkets. » Though these typologies characterize neighborhood retail development, retail typologies closer to the station areas are likely to be even narrower, mainly strip centers and neighborhood centers. Step 2 . Tourism-Driven: The City of St. Augustine, included in submarket 3, is a tourist attraction in the region, with three out of four visitors to St. Johns County staying in St. Augustine 14. Additional retail demand from these visitors is incorporated by taking the projected population growth from Florida Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research and applying a visitor spending per capita estimate for St. Johns County, ranging from $5,000 to $10,000 per capita 15. According to the St. Johns County Tourist Development Council (TDC), the analysis assumes that the average visitor spends 50% of their daily spending on retail. Assuming an average of $500 in sales for every 1 SF of retail space 16, the analysis projects tourism-driven retail demand.
This regional demand from residential, office, and tourism growth could align with 1,478,000 to 1,900,500 SF of retail space in the submarkets over the next 20 years. Retail in Downtown Jacksonville and Southern Duval-Northern St. Johns is expected to be driven by the growth of multifamily units, while Greater St. Augustine’s retail demand will also be supplemented by addition tourist driven retail demand that will not be met by the same retail serving residential demand. While tourists will also visit Downtown Jacksonville and Southern Duval and Northern St. Johns County, the same retail serving the residential demand is likely to serve the tourist demand given the largely residential and office concentration in the submarkets. Table 3-19 shows the net new supportable retail space in the submarkets and the region.
A retail demand analysis was conducted to understand the market potential for new retail space in the submarkets and the region. The analysis focuses on two types of retail demand: multifamily-driven demand and tourism-driven demand. Retail driven by multifamily also includes retail that will serve the “9-to-5” population of office workers in the area. The retail demand analysis methodology consists of the following steps: Step 1 . Multifamily-Driven: Per the results of the residential demand analysis, the region is projected to add a total of 148,620 market-rate units, 91,740 middle income units, and124,650 affordable units from 2023 to 2042 (see Table 3-16). This growth will potentially generate demand for retail space in mixed-use developments near transit stations. Using the average size of a multifamily household across Duval and St. Johns counties from the 2020 U.S. Census, the projected new units are converted to projected new residents. The retail demand is calculated by multiplying the projected residents by the retail space per capita estimate, described below. » Retail space per multifamily unit: The analysis estimates the retail demand per capita in the region by taking the existing retail square footage increase from 2010 to mid- year 2022 for Duval and St. Johns counties divided by the multifamily unit growth over the same period, coming to 79.1 SF of retail space per unit; applying average 4.2% decline in retail SF per unit to the projection, the final retail space per multifamily unit is 72.4 SF 11. To focus on TOD-driven retail demand rather than destination or specialized retail, power centers, super regional shopping centers, and regional malls were excluded from the existing retail inventory 12. The included retail typologies are 13:
Table 3-19: NET NEW SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE (2023-2042)
Source: Analysis
11 Change in specified retail inventory in Duval and St. Johns counties from 2010 to midyear 2022 was 2,067,514 SF (CoStar). Multifamily units increased by 26,142 over the same period (CoStar). 12 Though regional malls follow residential development, they are significantly larger developments than strip, community and neighborhood centers (Regional malls built since 2010 average 43,000 SF versus community and neighborhood centers averaging around 17,000 and strip centers even smaller) and are usually anchored by department stores serving a wider trade area than convenience-oriented retail. 13 Typologies defined by CoStar and ICSC Research. See: https://www.icsc.com/uploads/research/general/US_CENTER_ CLASSIFICATION.pdf 14 St. Johns County TDC Visitor Tracking Report 2020.” Downs & St. Germain Research for St. Johns Tourist Development Council. https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/st-augustine-2019/images/SAPVB-doc-images/St.-Johns-County-January-March-2020- Visitor-Tracking-Report-FINAL.pdf?v=1620061130 15 Visitor spending per capita is estimated to be $5,000 to $10,000 in St. Johns County; “Florida’s Tourism Economy Experiences Another Record Year in 2019 But Shifts Into a Lower Gear of Growth.” Rockport Analytics for VisitFlorida. https://www.visitflorida.org/ media/30679/florida-visitor-economic-large-impact-study.pdf 16 Assumption based on Maxim Annual Store Productivity Survey (2019).
FCCR TOD
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