FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
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INDUSTRIAL DEMAND
Land Sales Large vacant land lots (5 acres or more) sold in the last 5 years are for industrial or commercial uses, with price per acre varying widely. Sales occurred in outer Jacksonville, around CR 210 Station, and west of St. Augustine.
The industrial demand analysis examined the market potential for new industrial space in the submarkets and the region. As with the office demand analysis, the industrial demand analysis relied on past industry trends as indicators of future growth and assumed a standard square footage per employee in relevant industries to project industrial space demand. The industrial demand analysis methodology consists of the following steps and is very similar to the office demand analysis methodology: Step 1. Job growth: Using historic and projected employment data for the region, estimate projected job growth for Transportation and Warehousing 17 in each submarket. Step 2. Industrial space: Project the demand for new industrial space (adjusted for vacancy), using the average gross square feet (GSF) assigned per employee and the projected Transportation and Warehousing job growth. 18 Step 3. Submarket capture: To estimate a reasonable capture rate for each submarket, the analysis considers the average of the submarkets’ office absorption over the last 10 years and current share of regional office pipeline development. Using a blend of the two rates incorporates both past and future trends into the projections.
As shown in the office demand analysis, the region is projected to add a total of 20,000 new Transportation and Warehousing jobs from 2023 to 2042. This growth will potentially generate demand for industrial space. Based on an estimated 1,000 GSF of industrial space per employee, the additional regional jobs will create an estimated demand for 20,815,000 SF of industrial space in the region by 2042. This regional demand could align with approximately 872,000 SF of industrial space in the submarkets over the next 20 years. While industrial development in the region is expected to be strong due to the strong Transportation and Warehousing industry, development is mostly not taking place near the station areas. For TOD strategy, land-density-using development dense industrial development using a lot of land should generally not be encouraged. Table 3-20 shows the net new supportable industrial space in the submarkets and the region.
1. New World Avenue – Parcel F Jacksonville Sold 12/3/20 Industrial 332.20 Acres Sale price not disclosed 2. Imeson Industrial Park Imeson Park Blvd, Jacksonville Sold 10/29/18 Industrial 250.00 Acres Sale price: $1,416,286 Sale price/Acre: $5,665.14 3. PUD Land Development 671 Pecan Park Rd, Jacksonville Sold 8/20/21 Commercial 112.77 Acres Sale price: $4,912,261 Sale price/Acre: $43,559.99
4. 4925 County Road 208 Saint Augustine
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Sold 9/5/17 Commercial 61.50 Acres Sale price: $560,000
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Sale price/Acre: $9,105.69 5. 6285 State 16 Road
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Saint Augustine Sold 11/26/19
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Commercial 19.68 Acres Sale price: $1,055,000 Sale price/Acre: $53,607.72 6. San Jose Boulevard Jacksonville Sold 12/18/19 Commercial 3.50 Acres Sale price: $350,000 Sale price/Acre: $100,000
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Land lots sold in the last 5 years (since Q2 2014) FCCR corridor
Table 3-20: NET NEW SUPPORTABLE INDUSTRIAL SPACE (2023-2042)
Figure 3-50: RECENT LAND SALE
Source: CoStar, Dot size based on size of land lots (acreage)
Source: Analysis by the study team
17 The study team identified transportation and warehousing as the drivers of the industrial market in the region. Other industrial sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade are projected to remain largely flat or decline over the projected period (Emsi). 18 All numbers are not adjusted to account for the current office pipeline in the submarkets and the region. Future pipeline and churn will also meet a share of demand.
FCCR TOD
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