FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
FIRST COAST COMMUTER RAIL TOD STUDY | EXISTING CONDITIONS
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REGIONAL ROADWAY CONNECTIVITY
CONGESTION ANALYSIS
To estimate future travel demand affecting the study area, the Northeast Regional Planning Model: Activity- Based v2.1 (MODEL) was used. The MODEL was validated to a 2015 dataset consisting of US Census and employment data, existing transportation network, travel characteristics, survey data, and traffic counts. For the development of the future year traffic volume estimates, the volumes from the MODEL’s 2045 Adopted Cost Feasible transportation network (what the Northeast Florida Region has committed to funding for future transportation networks) were examined and compared against the most recent traffic counts obtained from FDOT Traffic Online, 2020. The analysis was conducted by looking at a given roadways Volume-to-Capacity (V/C) ratio. A V/C ratio greater than or equal to 1.0 indicates a facility is at or over capacity. Traffic volumes on roadways within a half mile buffer around the station areas in the FEC corridor are forecast to exceed the available roadway capacity by 2045. Overall, approximately 70 percent of roadway miles within the proposed station areas will be over capacity by 2045. The study area roadways forecasted to be over capacity by 2045 are listed in Table 3-8 to Table 3-11 and illustrated in Figure 3-6. Other factors in the analysis include the following: » Peak Season Weekday Average Daily Traffic (PSWADT) » Model Output Conversion Factor (MOCF) » Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)
The highest levels of congested roadways are located on the southern end of the corridor, particularly at the King Street and St. Augustine stations. Stations locations with the highest number of congested roadways include King Street (highest), Baymeadows (second highest), and then JRTC, San Marco, and SR 312 (third highest). The stations with the highest levels of V/C ratios (representing greater levels of congestion) include San Marco, JTB, San Carlos, St. Augustine, and King Street station areas. By 2045, the congested roadways throughout the corridor all show worsening conditions. By 2045, the congestion is anticipated to continue to grow exponentially. The station areas identified to likely experience the highest levels of increased congestion with limited capacity include JRTC, San Marco, Old St. Augustine, St. Augustine, and King Street. From a regional perspective, many of the facilities that are identified as having a V/C ratio of 1.0 or higher are also major regional roadways that are critical to regional travel. For example, I-95 experiences congestion exceeding its capacity throughout several station areas, including: JRTC, San Marco, Jackson Square, Walmart, and Avenues Walk. US 1/Philips Highway is congested from JTB south to Old St. Augustine. US 1/Dixie Highway is congested at CR 210 and Palencia station areas. Ponce De Leon Boulevard (US 1) is congested at San Sebastian View, St. Augustine, and King Street station locations.
Figure 3-6: ROADWAY NETWORK AND CONGESTED CORRIDOR
FCCR TOD
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