NICKEL
A view of the Kabanga Nickel Project footprint.
Nickel’s concentration problem By Chris Showalter, CEO of Lifezone Metals
Over the past several years, critical minerals security has become an increasingly urgent policy priority for many countries. Dozens of governments now have dedicated critical minerals strategies. In February of this year, the US hosted a Critical Minerals Ministerial convening delegations from 54 countries and the country signed numerous critical minerals agreements over the last 12 months. Similarly, in the EU, the Critical Raw Materials Act, which came into force in May 2024, establishes critical minerals supply as a strategic priority for the bloc.
N ickel is one of the minerals classified as critical by the US, the EU and many other jurisdictions. It is a vital ingredient in stainless steel, which has key applications in chemical and food processing, transportation, and construction, while increasingly nickel is used in electric vehicle batteries, and other cutting-edge technologies like superalloys used in aerospace and clean energy, like wind and solar infrastructure. As a general rule, nickel-containing
supply today. Moreover, many Indonesian miners and processors are Chinese-owned or Chinese-financed, giving China significant direct and indirect influence over the global nickel supply chain even where production itself sits outside its borders. With the supply depending so heavily on Indonesia, Indonesian government policy has become a major driver of nickel supply and price. Over the past 12 months alone, the government has made several policy moves
which have contributed to reduced supply and increased prices. In October 2025, Indonesia’s mining ministry issued a new regulation that shortens the validity of mining production
alloys shine in almost all high-heat and anti-corrosion applications. The metal’s supply, however, currently lacks the geographical diversification needed to ensure that production is secure and sustainable, a key requirement for any global supply chain. This makes it a real source of risk and price volatility for manufacturers, governments and investors alike. Global nickel supply is completely dominated by a small number of countries, in particular
quotas to one year from three years. Then, in December, the government announced that it would reduce 2026
The Kabanga Project comprises one of the world’s largest and highest-grade nickel sulphide deposits with 2.7 billion pounds worth of contained nickel equivalent metal in Measured and Indicated Resource at a grade of more than 2%, plus by-products.
nickel production quotas from 379 million tonnes in 2025 to 250-260 million tonnes in 2026. These policy shifts are evolving but contributed to a substantial market reaction with the LME three-month nickel rising from approximately $14 235 per tonne in mid- December 2025 to $18 905 per tonne on 14 January 2026. This concentration risk extends beyond mining itself,
Indonesia, and this concentration has increased dramatically since the turn of the decade. Whilst in 2020 Indonesia accounted for 31.5% of global nickel supply, today this figure has increased to over 60%. It is likely that in a couple of years, Indonesia will produce more than 70% of global nickel supply. Add the Philippines, the second-largest supplier, and the two countries account for almost three-quarters of global
to other parts of the nickel supply chain, such as the sulphur required for nickel processing. Indonesia imported 5.35 million tonnes of sulphur in 2025 and 75% of the imported sulphur comes from the Middle East. Most of these shipments pass
10 MODERN MINING www.modernminingmagazine.co.za | OCTOBER 2026
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