Proposal 2023
Form Guide CSI5* ROLEX GRAND PRIX SUNDAY 13 MAY 2023
PREVIOUS WINNERS, RATINGS AND ANALYSIS FOR THE CSI5* ROLEX GRAND PRIX
Four horses to follow for the final day.
The Favourite: Ben Maher & Explosion W (798)
The Olympic champion is the class horse in the field but a 10 month absence from top level means they could be rusty.
Hometown Hero: Harry Charles & Balou du Reventon (754) At 17, the runs are carefully selected but Windsor 2023 meets the criteria. Still potentially the Olympic horse for Paris.
The One to Watch: Max Kühner & Elektric Blue P Second here in this class last year and an impressive 63.3% clear rate at 160 maintained over the past 12 months. They could be serious contenders this weekend.
The Rising Star: Kent Farrington & Landon
Hard to believe Landon is only 10. With an Elo of 738, Landon is the second-highest rated 10- year-old in the sport today.
These are the previous winners of the CSI5* Rolex Grand Prix at Royal Windsor Horse Show
The Olympic champion starts as favourite but there are challenges from all the age groups and all the nations
Elo Ratings & How we rank horses The EquiRatings Elo is an objective horse rating. It was inspired by others who likewise adapted the Elo from a chess rating to a sports rating (for the likes of the FIFA World Cup, NFL, and NBA). In the Elo system, a horse gains Elo points based on the quality of horses he beats and a horse loses Elo points based on the quality of horses who finish ahead of him(counting only CSI4*/5* events at 150 and above). Every horse starts their international jumping career on an Elo of 520. The all-time record Elo is an 804 (reached by Explosion W in 2021). Win chances Win chances are based on EquiRatings modelling which is developed using historical results, horse experience and horse ability (based on clear rates and Elo ratings). Using these inputs, a predictive model calculates the likelihood of a rail, speed and jump-off performance. We simulate the competition to then determine the win chances.
Bertram Allen Pacino Amiro 11 years old 39% Clear Chance Rank: 9
13%
4%
Podium Chance Rank: 9
Win Chance Rank: 9
Strong pair with lots of experience under their belt. Great track record at 155 with 2 wins out of 3 in 2023, but could improve on 160 clear rate.
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
15/12/2022
16/12/2022
28/01/2023
09/02/2023
11/02/2023
25/02/2023
09/03/2023
11/03/2023
30/03/2023
01/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 67 globally, 8 Nationally, and 9 at the competition
728
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 1st in the Grand Prix of Wellington FL in 2022
100
4eld range
64
112
Kevin Staut Dialou Blue PS 10 years old 39% Clear Chance Rank: 9
13%
4%
Podium Chance Rank: 9
Win Chance Rank: 9
One of the leading 10-year-old horses right now. Has jumped 5 out of 7 5* 160 clears in his life. With that clear rate, this pair could be one to watch
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
03/12/2022
04/12/2022
09/12/2022
10/12/2022
28/12/2022
29/12/2022
20/01/2023
28/01/2023
24/02/2023
04/03/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 75 globally, 7 Nationally, and 10 at the competition
724
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 6th in the Grand Prix of Cannes in 2022
78
4eld range
64
112
Victor Bettendorf Mr. Tac 11 years old 33% Clear Chance Rank: 12
10%
3%
Podium Chance Rank: 11
Win Chance Rank: 11
Lightning fast combination. Won the Grand Prix of Paris at their last outing at 5* level. Not massively experienced at this level but gaining experience and establishing themselves quickly. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
11/12/2022
13/01/2023
15/01/2023
23/02/2023
25/02/2023
26/02/2023
10/03/2023
12/03/2023
17/03/2023
19/03/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 108 globally, 1 Nationally, and 12 at the competition
710
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd at St Tropez 2022
103
4eld range
64
112
Duarte Seabra Dourados 2 10 years old 33% Clear Chance Rank: 12
10%
3%
Podium Chance Rank: 11
Win Chance Rank: 11
One of the most consistent clear round jumpers at 4* & 5* level in 2023 so far. Only 10 years old but shaping up to be a fabulous horse for the Portuguese rider. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
15/01/2023
20/01/2023
22/01/2023
05/02/2023
17/02/2023
19/02/2023
17/03/2023
19/03/2023
24/03/2023
26/03/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 130 globally, 2 Nationally, and 14 at the competition
705
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix of Vejer de la Frontera in 2023
64
4eld range
64
112
Daniel Deusser Scuderia 1918 Tobago Z 15 years old 54% Clear Chance Rank: 1 29%
13%
Podium Chance Rank: 1
Win Chance Rank: 1
Started off 2023 with a bang and equalled Explosion W's record Elo. Then slightly dropped in form & retired at World Cup Finals. Still 3rd highest-rated horse in the world, but is his age catching up to him? Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
09/12/2022
11/12/2022
30/12/2022
29/01/2023
04/02/2023
12/03/2023
17/03/2023
19/03/2023
05/04/2023
06/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 3 globally, 1 Nationally, and 2 at the competition
78 9
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record At Barcelona Nations Cup Final 2019
108
4eld range
64
112
Roger Yves Bost Cassius Clay Vdv Z 13 years old 35% Clear Chance Rank: 11
10%
3%
Podium Chance Rank: 11
Win Chance Rank: 11
100% clear rate for this pair at 150 and 155, just one rail knocked at 160 in 2023. Come in fresh off a 4* Grand Prix win Fontainebleau 3 weeks ago.
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
27/05/2022
24/06/2022
30/06/2022
01/07/2022
21/01/2023
05/02/2023
18/03/2023
19/03/2023
20/04/2023
23/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 96 globally, 10 Nationally, and 11 at the competition
715
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record As part of a Nations Cup team in Rome 2022
99
4eld range
64
112
Harry Charles Balou du Reventon 17 years old 48% Clear Chance Rank: 3
22%
8%
Podium Chance Rank: 3
Win Chance Rank: 3
A newly-paired combination. Already achieved great things. First outing since Top 10 4nish at World Cup Finals. These two are motivated to shine on home soil. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
27/05/2022
29/05/2022
08/07/2022
10/08/2022
11/08/2022
04/02/2023
12/03/2023
05/04/2023
06/04/2023
08/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 21 globally, 4 Nationally, and 3 at the competition
754
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record As part of the Omaha World Cup Final 2023
95
4eld range
64
112
Ben Maher Explosion W 14 years old 53% Clear Chance Rank: 2
28%
13%
Podium Chance Rank: 2
Win Chance Rank: 1
Reigning Olympic Champion & highest-rated horse in the 4eld. Record holder of highest Elo ever recorded. This is his 4rst 5* in 10 months. Can he return to the sport in the form he left? Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
23/10/2021
23/10/2021
18/11/2021
20/11/2021
10/12/2021
12/12/2021
17/06/2022
18/06/2022
18/06/2022
03/07/2022
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 2 globally, 1 Nationally, and 1 at the competition
7 9 8
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Winning Gold in Tokyo 2021
1 1 2
4eld range
64
112
Daniel Bluman Ladriano Z 15 years old 46% Clear Chance Rank: 5
20%
8%
Podium Chance Rank: 5
Win Chance Rank: 3
Well-established pair, 4nished 3rd here last year. Won a 5* GP in Wellington over the winter but could do with improving their 160 clear rate this year, currently at only 20%. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
11/09/2022
03/11/2022
05/11/2022
09/12/2022
11/12/2022
09/02/2023
11/02/2023
11/03/2023
06/04/2023
08/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 27 globally, 1 Nationally, and 5 at the competition
749
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix of Wellington FL in 2022
97
4eld range
64
112
Koen Vereecke Kasanova de La Pomme 13 years old 33% Clear Chance Rank: 12 10%
3%
Podium Chance Rank: 11
Win Chance Rank: 11
Jumped clear in their last 5* Grand Prix in Paris last month. This will only be their second outing at 4ve-star 160 of the year.
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
08/12/2022
09/12/2022
11/12/2022
30/12/2022
19/02/2023
03/03/2023
05/03/2023
17/03/2023
18/03/2023
19/03/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 115 globally, 9 Nationally, and 13 at the competition
709
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record At Barcelona Nations Cup Final 2022
106
4eld range
64
112
Martin Fuchs Conner Jei 12 years old 33% Clear Chance Rank: 12
10%
3%
Podium Chance Rank: 11
Win Chance Rank: 11
No outings at 4* or 5* level yet this year.
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
19/08/2022
21/08/2022
28/08/2022
29/09/2022
02/10/2022
28/10/2022
30/10/2022
13/11/2022
04/12/2022
09/12/2022
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 134 globally, 7 Nationally, and 15 at the competition
704
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd at Vejer de la Frontera 2022
93
4eld range
64
112
Kent Farrington Landon 10 years old 42% Clear Chance Rank: 6
16%
6%
Podium Chance Rank: 7
Win Chance Rank: 6
Second-highest rated 10-year-old in the world right now. Comes fresh off a CSIO5* Grand Prix win. Despite his Landon's age, fast pair and strong contenders for the win. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
15/12/2022
17/12/2022
09/02/2023
11/02/2023
09/03/2023
11/03/2023
30/03/2023
01/04/2023
28/04/2023
30/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 43 globally, 6 Nationally, and 6 at the competition
738
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 3rd in the Grand Prix of Wellington, FL in 2023
88
4eld range
64
112
Max Kāļhner Elektric Blue P 12 years old 48% Clear Chance Rank: 3
21%
8%
Podium Chance Rank: 4
Win Chance Rank: 3
Strong combination. Produced solid results on World Cup circuit over the winter. This is their 4rst 5* outdoor show. Finished 2nd in the GP here last year & motivated to repeat or improve that. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
06/11/2022
18/11/2022
20/11/2022
08/12/2022
16/12/2022
18/12/2022
14/01/2023
28/01/2023
04/02/2023
12/03/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 25 globally, 1 Nationally, and 4 at the competition
751
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 1st in the Grand Prix of 's-Hertogenbosch in 2021
106
4eld range
64
112
Scott Brash Hello Je5erson 14 years old 42% Clear Chance Rank: 6
17%
6%
Podium Chance Rank: 6
Win Chance Rank: 6
Vastly experienced. Motivated to do well in front of home crowd. Disappointing result for them on Friday, but know how to come back from that. Recent form 0 >8 <=4 160+
155
150
18/12/2022
13/01/2023
15/01/2023
04/02/2023
24/02/2023
26/02/2023
12/03/2023
05/04/2023
06/04/2023
08/04/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 43 globally, 5 Nationally, and 6 at the competition
738
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix of Aachen in 2022
11 0
4eld range
64
112
Jana Wargers Limbridge 14 years old 42% Clear Chance Rank: 6
15%
5%
Podium Chance Rank: 8
Win Chance Rank: 8
Horse's 4rst 5* outing since January. Jumped a lovely clear in feature class on Friday, but withdrew from jump-off to prepare for today's Grand Prix.
Recent form
>8 <=4
0
160+
155
150
02/10/2022
28/10/2022
30/10/2022
11/11/2022
13/11/2022
08/12/2022
11/12/2022
20/01/2023
22/01/2023
29/01/2023
How we rate this horse This horses performance according to the Elo system. Ranking 63 globally, 11 Nationally, and 8 at the competition
730
4eld range
704
798
Best performance on record Finishing 2nd in the Grand Prix of Rome - Piazza di Siena in 2022
95
4eld range
64
112
The stats and metrics in this form guide are brought to you by EquiRatings. EquiRatings is a data analysis company dedicated to horse sports. They develop and deliver the unique, data-driven insights that elevate the sport and excite the audience.
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