the rennie review DATA-DRIVEN INSIGHTS INTO SALES, LISTINGS, AND PRICING TRENDS FOR SEATTLE AND BELLEVUE
published December 2020
table of contents
Each month, we release the rennie review, a detailed look at the real estate marketplace in Seattle and Bellevue. This report examines our take on the latest NWMLS data for the Seattle Region, overarching market conditions and detailed county- and city-level stats.
02 INTRO
03 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
04 KING COUNTY - RESIDENTIAL
05 KING COUNTY - CONDO
Ryan Berlin DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE & SENIOR ECONOMIST rberlin@rennie.com
Bowen Behan Pausey DATA ANALYST bbehan@rennie.com
06 SEATTLE - RESIDENTIAL
07 SEATTLE - CONDO
08 BELLEVUE - RESIDENTIAL
09 BELLEVUE - CONDO
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 2
a spring in the step of the fall market and a look ahead to 2021 King County’s housing market has retained the momentum that originated during the late spring and early summer, with a robust level of sales through November. On balance, signs are pointing towards a continuation of recent trends into the new year.
25% compared to last year and 37% versus the long-run average. More housing tailwinds than headwinds in 2021. Despite the ubiquitous tumult of 2020, global housing markets—including ours—have been resilient. As we look ahead to 2021, there are a number of reasons to think that the markets for all things, including housing, will have a bumper year. Reasons for optimism include the impending (at the time of this column’s writing) FDA approval of a covid vaccine and the corresponding potential for a return to full employment, continued historically- low interest rates, and the possibility of increased immigration under the incoming President’s administration. While all of this must be balanced against the risks of unprecedented growth in public debt and uncertainty around the resolution of covid, here’s to looking forward to a year filled with prosperity and good health for all.
As we near the end of a rollercoaster year that has been 2020, we share the latest data and three insights into our housing market. The fall market sure feels like spring. On the heels of sales counts not seen in at least 20 years in each of September and October, King County’s November showing continued the trend, tallying 3,271 MLS sales. This was 28% higher than November 2019 and 39% higher than the past-decade average, after October and September counted sales that were 45% higher and 41% higher than the long-run averages for their respective months. On top of all of this, November marked the fifth consecutive month of at least 3,000 sales, the first time we have seen this in over two years. All of this puts our recent monthly sales counts in the company of a typical late-spring and early-summer month
(with sales having averaged between 3,100 and 3,300 monthly between May and July over the past decade). The Bellevue market was more active than that of Seattle in November. We have previously noted the impact that covid has had, at the margin, on the spatial distribution of sales in King County, with larger homes with more indoor and outdoor space being highly coveted. While this would typically be to the benefit of Seattle’s sales counts—as three-quarters of sales in Seattle over the past two years have been non- condos, versus 60% in Bellevue—buying activity in Bellevue was robust in November. To wit, the 236 sales in Bellevue in November were 52% higher than one year ago, and 54% above the past-decade November average. This compares to Seattle, where November sales were up only
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
king county
RES IDENT IAL NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
37 % DOWN
14 % UP
-
13 % UP
25 % UP
0.7 SELLER’S
There were 1,700 residential homes for sale in King County in November, 31% below last month and 37% lower vs November 2019. Residential closed sales fell 18% month-over-month, to 2,476, but were 25% higher year-over-year. There was 0.7 months of inventory for residential homes in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in November was $735,000, 2% below October but 13% higher vs last year. The average sold price for residential homes was $914,566, 0.3% higher month-over-month and 14% above November of last year.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No.
% Change
No.
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
1,700 2,476
2,464 3,010
-31% -18% -16%
2,695 1,976
-37% 25% -50% 13% 14%
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
0.7
0.8
1.36
$735,000 $750,000 $914,566 $911,765
-2% $650,000 0.3% $800,278
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$725,000
$729,950 $750,000 $735,000
$679,950
$650,000 $642,625
1.67
1.63
1.54
2,895
2,886
2,748
2,695
2,476
2,536
2,780
2,678
1,760
1,976
1,849
1,700
1,655
1,272
Nov-19
Oct-20
Nov-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
. . . 0 0 0 0 0 MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE SELLER'S MARKET BALANCED BUYER'S MARKET
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 4
king county
CONDO NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE 9 % UP
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE 37 % UP
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
23 % UP
7 % UP
39 % UP
1.8 SELLER’S
The number of condo homes for sale in King County, at 1,276, was down 21% month-over-month but 37% above last year. November’s condo closed sales, at 690, were 14% below last month but 39% higher than last year. There was 1.8 months of inventory for condos in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in November was $450,000, unchanged month-over-month and 7% higher year-over-year. The average sold price was $611,362 with an average PSF sales price of $490 (both down 5%, respectively, vs October).
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No.
% Change
No. 929 495 1.88
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
1,276
1,608
-21% -14%
37% 39%
CLOSED SALES
690 1.8
806 2.0
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-7%
-1.5%
$450,000 $450,000 $611,362 $646,038
0.0% $422,500 -5% $497,108
7%
23%
$490
$515
-5%
$449
9%
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$422,500 $410,000 $439,225 $420,000 $429,375 $446,000 $450,000
1,633
1,276
1,321
1,021
929
812
595
736
670
690
614
495
366
357
KING COUNTY
SEATTLE
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS ›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
170
3+ bdrms
142
SELLER'S MARKET
356
2 bdrms
BALANCED
617
BUYER'S MARKET
164
. . . . 0 0 0 0
<2 bdrms
517
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 5
seattle
RES IDENT IAL NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
10 % UP
-
10 % UP
1.3 % UP
26 % UP
1.1 SELLER’S
The number of residential homes for sale in Seattle in November, at 917, was 25% lower month-over- month but 1.3% higher year-over-year. With 836 in November, residential closed sales were 16% lower month-over-month but 26% higher year-over-year. There was 1.1 months of inventory for residential homes in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in November was $797,625, 0.3% below October but 10% higher vs November 2019. The average sold price was $934,015, 1.7% above last month and 10% higher vs November 2019.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No.
% Change
No. 905 665 1.4
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
917 836 1.1
1,222 1,000
-25% -16% -10%
1.3% 26% -19% 10% 10%
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
1.2
$797,625 $800,000 $934,015 $917,956
-0.3% $722,500 1.7% $851,581
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$784,950 $749,000 $778,000 $799,000 $797,625
$722,500 $720,000
1.62
1.61
1.60
1,263
1,065
917
905
905
762
978
921
553
836
665
651
548
446
Nov-19
Oct-20
Nov-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
BUYER'S MARKET
. . . 0 0 0 0 0
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 6
seattle
CONDO NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE 59 % UP
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY 3.7 BALANCED
MARKET SUMMARY ›
13 % UP
0.0 %
11 % UP
29 % UP
There were 812 condo homes for sale in Seattle in November, 18% below October but 59% higher vs November 2019. November’s condo closed sales decreased by 12% month-over-month but were up 29% year-over-year. There was 3.7 months of inventory for condos in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in November was $500,000, 1.3% above October and 11% higher vs November 2019. The average sold price was $592,903, 7% below last month; the average PSF sales price was $570, down 3% from last month.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 986 250 3.9
% Change
No. 512 170 3.0
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
812 219 3.7
-18% -12%
59% 29% 23% 11% 13% 0.0%
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-6%
$500,000 $493,750 $592,903 $638,123
1.3% $450,000 -7% $526,229
$570
$588
-3%
$570
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$500,000
$450,000 $453,000 $483,500 $475,000 $480,000 $475,000
1,010
812
787
543
512
432
319
276
251
233
219
170
140
135
SEATTLE
KING COUNTY
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS
›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
27
BUYER'S MARKET
3+ bdrms
60
101
2 bdrms
357
91
. . . . 0 0 0 0
<2 bdrms
395
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 7
bellevue
RES IDENT IAL NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
43 % DOWN
18 % UP
-
13 % UP
59 % UP
0.6 SELLER’S
There were 76 residential homes for sale in the Bellevue market area in November, 32% below last month and 43% lower vs November 2019. Residential closed sales decreased by 22% month-over-month, to 129, but were 59% higher year-over-year. There was 0.6 months of inventory for residential homes in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The median sold price in November was $1.29M, 6% above October and 13% higher vs last year. The average sold price for residential homes was $1.59M, 0.2% lower month-over-month but 18% above November of last year.
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 112 165 0.7
% Change
No. 134
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
76
-32% -22% -13%
-43% 59% -64% 13% 18%
CLOSED SALES
129 0.6
81
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE
1.7
$1,293,000 $1,225,000
6% $1,141,300
$1,585,382 $1,588,069 -0.2% $1,343,156
AVERAGE PRICE PSF
-
-
-
-
-
RATIO OF MEDIAN PRICES ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
MILLIONS
$1.37
$1.28
$1.29
$1.21
$1.20
$1.14
1.99
$1.04
1.59
1.21
181
154
149
134
129
127
131
69
119
81
75
76
66
42
Nov-19
Oct-20
Nov-20
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
BUYER'S MARKET
. . . 0 0 0 0 0 QD
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 8
bellevue
CONDO NOVEMBER
AVERAGE PRICE
AVERAGE PSF PRICE
MEDIAN PRICE
HOMES FOR SALE
CLOSED SALES
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
MARKET SUMMARY ›
70 % UP
38 % UP
42 % UP
168 % UP
44 % UP
1.2 SELLER’S
The number of condo homes for sale in Bellevue, at 126, was down 23% month-over-month but increased 168% vs last year. November’s condo closed sales, at 105, were 27% below last month but 44% higher than last year. There was 1.2 months of inventory for condos in November, reflecting seller’s market conditions. The condo median sold price in November was $815,000, down 19% vs October but a 42% increase from November 2019. The average sold price was $1.18M with an average PSF sales price of $794 (down 2% and 7%, respec- tively, vs October).
VS
VS
VS
VS
VS
PREVIOUS MONTH
PREVIOUS YEAR
THIS MONTH No.
No. 164 143 1.1
% Change
No.
% Change
HOMES FOR SALE
126 105 1.2
-23% -27%
47 73
168%
CLOSED SALES
44% 86% 42% 70% 38%
MONTHS OF INVENTORY MEDIAN SOLD PRICE AVERAGE SOLD PRICE AVERAGE PRICE PSF
5%
0.6
$815,000 $1,010,400 -19% $572,500
$1,182,550 $1,207,824
-2% $696,535
$794
$854
-7%
$575
AVG PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT ›
HISTORICAL TREND ›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MEDIAN PRICE
$906,450
$815,000
$665,000
$620,500 $574,000
172
$572,500
$484,000
126
110
82
73
105
61
32
78
26
56
55
47
32
BELLEVUE KING COUNTY
HOMES FOR SALE & CLOSED SALES BY PRICE RANGE
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS ›
›
CLOSED SALES
HOMES FOR SALE
MONTHS OF INVENTORY
CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
SELLER'S MARKET
BALANCED
26
BUYER'S MARKET
3+ bdrms
20
60
2 bdrms
68
19
. . . . 0 0 0 0
<2 bdrms
38
MONTHS OF INV. CLOSED SALES HOMES FOR SALE
Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Northwest Multiple Listing Serivce & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 9
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Copyright © 2020 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of December 10, 2020. All data from Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 10
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