A TABLIBAN BLITZKRIEG
oppression of ethnic and religious minorities within Afghanistan’s boundaries? The answer: nothing that matters. The “international community” is feckless. In a recent New York Times piece written by a Norwegian and a Japanese diplomat, they exhorted the United Nations to step into the breach and prevent a total catastrophe in Afghanistan: The U.N. must step into this vacuum. In the first instance, the secretary general must immediately convene the Security Council and seek a clear mandate to empower the U.N., both in the country and at the negotiating table. That would mean the United States, Russia, China, and other members of the council coming together to authorize a special representative to act as a mediator. Reliance on the U.N. or some other “mediator” with the Taliban is lunacy... It is too much faith in diplomacy that brought us to the current crisis. The February 2020 agreement that the Trump administration negotiated in Doha, Qatar with the Taliban was flagrantly violated without consequence this past spring. In the absence of U.S. military muscle to punish the Taliban for breaking its word, we can expect them to continue in this fashion. Their approach will be the application of the timeless maxim might makes right . Additionally, China and Russia have very different goals in Afghanistan than the United States does, and they will ruthlessly pursue their spheres of interest without the slightest compunction about human rights or democracy.
Xi Jinping’s paramount concern is ensuring his infrastructure investments, his crowned jewel being the sweeping plan known as the Belt and Road Initiative (a Silk Road 2.0). And as for Putin, he’s hungry to consolidate his nation’s shadow of influence in Central Eurasia, with his eyes on former Soviet republics along the southern border as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. And under the bloodied Afghan soil sits precious, tech-friendly elements such as lithium (a requisite for EV batteries), so both of these autocrats will treat the Taliban with kid gloves to not spoil the cynical opportunism of unearthing the region’s resources. The Russians especially will take a grim satisfaction in the U.S. heading for the exits while Afghanistan smolders in an echo of their own experience at the hands of the Mujahadeen in 1988. At some level, the Biden administration appears to be in denial about the severity of the catastrophe. This White House has decided that, because the Trump administration before it also sought to leave Afghanistan, there’s bipartisan cover – and blame – for this disaster. Biden made it clear that he has no interest in changing his timeline, regardless of facts on the ground, in a speech he gave on July 8, 2021: When I made the decision to end the U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan, I judged that it was not in the national interest of the United States of America to continue fighting this war indefinitely. I made the decision with clear eyes, and
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August 2021
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