New York City hospitals... or more recently, the hordes of people seeking treatment in India. Emergency rooms were overrun. People were on stretchers in hallways – or worse, they were turned away altogether. Even now, the Delta variant combined with anti-vaxxers is leading to further hot spots around the country. Hospitals across the country were caught off-guard. Thanks to my friend Eric Pender, a health care data scientist, the 92-hospital Trinity Health System used data to predict when COVID-19 cases would surge in ERs. This is a great example of how one health care system reacted to the pandemic and developed an approach that will last into the future. The system leverages tracking data from a number of apps on smartphones and tablets in specific geographic areas. Pender and his team were able see whether or not people were moving around. Their theory? If people were moving around, they were spreading the virus... leading to increased illness and demand on hospital resources. They isolated these data by counties in and around their hospital locations. It’s no surprise that COVID-19 surges to the ER were directly correlated with tracking data showing people moving around (not quarantining). This heads-up allowed the hospitals to plan for staffing and have adequate PPE, anti- virals, ventilators, and other crucial supplies at target hospitals. This process will be built on and expanded
to predict other outbreaks like future flu season hospital utilization. The method can be customized for many use cases. It may not have been developed without the pandemic. Related to this is something else we first heard about with COVID: contact tracing. Identifying people who were in direct contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case can predict where more illness may occur. Most of the contact tracing developed for COVID-19 was manually put together and rudimentary. However, with the use of anonymous location tracking data that is now readily available, contact tracing can be used to predict other infectious disease outbreaks. The use of “big data” in health care will allow us to see patterns that were previously invisible. It also is here to stay.
A NEWHEALTH SYSTEM FOUNDATION Despite the tragic loss of life, massive economic impact, increase in mental illness, and many other negative consequences, COVID-19 and our country’s response to it will prove invaluable for future generations. These four positive outcomes presented above are likely the tip of the iceberg... With what we know now after the disastrous year that was 2020, a solid foundation has been laid.
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August 2021
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