By James Barrie W hen British citizens voted to leave the European Union the clock started ticking. Brexit as it has become known signaled the begin- ning of negotiations of new trade deals and other pacts for the British government with remaining EU members. Brits have two years in which to work out deals outlining their future relationship with member countries. Formal talks will not begin until Prime Minister David Cameron steps down in October. Cameron vowed an exit vote would force his resignation. He will step aside to afford his successor full control of Britain’s exit planning. Britain’s participation in the EU never followed the full integration path. They kept their own currency and limited which EU countries had open access to the UK. Their departure is fuelled by problems with immigration and the belief that EU red tape has put a stranglehold on British businesses. Some fear this historic decision will rekindle separatist battles across Europe and in the west. Scottish residents narrowly rejected separation from Great Britain in 2014 however they voted opposite to Britain choosing to remain in the EU. It is a widely held opinion Brexit will trigger a new sovereignty vote in Scotland in the near future. Will this activity ignite the sovereignty within Quebec? During the 2015 federal election New Democratic Party leader Thomas Mulcair opened the door by challenging then Liberal leader Justin Trudeau on repealing the Clarity Act. The Act states any referendum on Quebec separation requires a clear question and clear majority to succeed. Mulcair repeatedly challenged Trudeau to place a number on the “clear majority” requirement to which Trudeau refused. Sovereignty proponents wasted no time amplifying the debate in hopes of using it to gain momentum for their separation movement.
With a sluggish economy and large deficits forecast for his entire mandate the last thing Prime Minister Trudeau needs is another referendum. If Brexit quiets the critics with a reasonably painless execution it could very well be the tipping point for Quebec and Scottish sovereigntists to revisit sepa- ration with renewed hope. In the 1995 Quebec referendum there was a fast rise of separatist support that clouded the “No” campaign message. Many feel it took an impromptu one minute pro-unity endorsement from US President Bill Clinton to break the impasse and sway undecided voters to keep Canada united. The event paralyzed Canada’s government for months. If Brexit ignites separat- ist passions in Quebec PM Trudeau could very well find himself drawn into a battle he cannot afford to fight and also turn Ottawa’s focus away from the economy and placing it on national unity. In the months ahead Brexit will be watched closely by nationalists and separatists to see if Britain struggles or prevails.
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SPOTLIGHT ON BUSINESS • JULY 2016
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