The Global Advisor: Terrorism - Marsh 03.25

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The Global Advisor

Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest March 2025

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025

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The essential report written by Control Risks , for the exclusive readership of Hiscox brokers and policy holders.

Terrorism, war and civil unrest trends

Global outlook

Focus on: Global Islamist extremist threat

Focus on: Outlook for Middle East and Ukraine conflicts

About Us

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Terrorism, war and civil unrest trends October–December (Q4)

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Top 8 commercial sectors for Terrorism, war and civil unrest incidents 19 % Education 15 % Aviation

The number of war incidents recorded by Seerist increased by about 11% compared with Q3 2024. The Ukraine conflict remained the dominant source of incidents. Nevertheless, incidents in Russia noticeably declined by about 30%, reflecting a reduction in Ukrainian cross-border drone attacks. The escalation between the Lebanese Shia movement Hizbullah and Israel prompted incidents in Lebanon to more than double quarter-on-quarter. Recorded terrorist attacks recorded rose by almost a quarter in the final months of 2024. The escalation in the Middle East drove a ten-fold increase in attacks in Lebanon, as well as a smaller rise in Israel. Similarly, Yemen recorded an uptick off the back of Houthi militant attacks. Global unrest incidents declined by 15% compared with Q3. The ousting of Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 precipitated an approximately 50% decline in unrest incidents in Bangladesh in Q4. Other unrest drivers in the quarter included the constitutional crisis in South Korea and the US elections.

Top 10 countries by incident category

Source: Seerist

Terrorism

Israel Syria Lebanon Palestinian Terr. Pakistan Yemen Colombia Mozambique Somalia Congo (DRC)

13 % Healthcare 10 % Agriculture 8 % Retail 7 % Power 6 % Oil and Gas 4 %

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Ukraine Lebanon Russia Syria Palestinian Terr. Israel Myanmar Sudan Yemen Congo (DRC)

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India US Iran Morocco

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0.8% decrease on Q3 2024

Telecommunications

France Yemen Bangladesh Iraq Pakistan South Korea

Source: Seerist

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The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Global outlook–March to May 2025

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Bolivia: Political instability will remain elevated ahead of presidential elections on 17 August. Tensions between President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales (2006-2019) will continue to spark disruptive protests, including sporadic violent clashes. Mexico: Violence will continue to rise as campaigns for the first judicial elections begin in March. In 2024, armed attacks, disappearances and kidnappings against political actors surged to historic highs. US: The Trump administration’s early actions, including shutting government agencies and pardoning those convicted for the January 2021 US Capitol insurrection, are likely to drive sporadic unrest in the coming months. Congo (DRC): Fighting between Congolese security forces and the M23 armed group is likely to remain intense in eastern DRC as M23’s offensive continues in North and South Kivu. Any ceasefire would be fragile. Congo (DRC): Continued fighting and potential further military setbacks for the Congolese authorities will sustain an elevated threat of violent unrest in urban areas, including the capital Kinshasa. Mozambique: The threat of civil unrest has fallen after a campaign of widespread protests in late 2024, but small, brief and localised protests will remain frequent.

Israel/Palestinian Territories: The ceasefire in Gaza will remain fragile with a possibility for its breakdown after US President Donald Trump shifted Tel Aviv’s strategic calculations and lowered its assessment of the costs associated with resuming hostilities. Iran: The US’s intent to use sanctions to increase pressure on Iran will drive Tehran to retaliate against Washington by, among other measures, refusing to engage in talks until the White House offers de-escalatory measures. Australia: Antisemitic violence will be driven by Middle East tensions and political debate in the lead-up to the federal election (due by May). Attacks, mostly vandalism and arson, are likely to target Jewish communities, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. New Caledonia: Ongoing talks will likely reignite tensions between the pro-French and pro-independence factions. Clashes between factions and with police are likely in the capital Noumea and surrounding cities. South Korea: While the peak of protests over the failed martial law attempt by impeached president Yoon Suk-yeol has passed, pro- and anti-Yoon protests remain potential flashpoints.

Ukraine: Ukraine will seek to retain control of parts of Russia’s Kursk region, while Moscow maximises its advances alongside negotiations instigated by US President Donald Trump. Regardless, the security situation will remain fragile. Kosovo: No party secured a majority in the parliamentary elections on 9 February, increasing the threat of political volatility and civil unrest in the months ahead. Ethnic Serb militant groups may exploit the uncertainty to carry out acts of sabotage or small-scale attacks against security forces.

Serbia: The prime minister in January resigned following months of large-scale protests related to the fatal collapse of a rail station roof in November 2024. There is potential for snap elections in the coming months, as well as for protests to continue. Yemen: Despite the partial suspension of attacks against vessels, the threat of the Houthi rebel movement resuming its hostile activity in the Red Sea persists in tangent to developments in Gaza (Palestinian Territories).

Outlook

Greenland (Denmark) 11 March

Gabon 12 April

Global 1 May

Romania 4 May

Albania 11 May

Philippines 12 May

Poland 18 May

Suriname 25 May Legislative elections

General elections

Presidential election

May Day

Presidential election

Parliamentary elections

Territorial elections

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Focus on: Global Islamist extremist threat

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breakdown in ceasefire conditions – some of which are up for renegotiation in March – and/or inflammatory rhetoric by key stakeholders, including the US, will likely increase Islamist extremists’ intent to mount attacks. The conflict will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia, where the most likely scenario remains a small-scale attack by an individual or small group against soft targets. Robust counterterrorism capabilities in these regions will mitigate threats to high-profile targets, including religious locations, diplomatic facilities and major events. Transnational terrorist groups will continue to rely on inciting small-scale attacks by their supporters abroad, including those radicalised or motivated by the conflict. Islamic State (IS) in 2024 benefited from a distracted international community and reduced counterterrorism pressures by increasing its capabilities in rural areas and the Badiya desert in Syria. This will likely be further driven by the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime (2000-24) in December 2024. The dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) under the new US President Donald Trump may also contribute to further reducing counterterrorism pressures. IS will exploit the ongoing power transition in Syria and distracted counterterror coalition to expand its operations. In the coming months, the terrorism threat is likely to be further elevated as several major religious holidays take place. The Muslim holy

Key takeaways

Islamist extremist incidents, by region

Source: Seerist

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Developments in the Middle East, including the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon as well as the change in regime in Syria, will continue to impact regional and global terrorism threats. Global terrorism threat levels will be elevated during key religious holidays in the coming quarter, including the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Christian Easter period and the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday. In Western countries, the most likely targets for attacks will remain crowded public spaces, including shopping districts and public events, though the

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number of religious holidays will increase the threat to religious buildings or events.

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The most likely scenario is a small- scale attack by an individual or small group against a soft target.

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Africa

APAC

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MENA

month of Ramadan (28 February-30 March) typically coincides with an uptick in attacks, often following exhortations from groups including IS, al-Qaida and their affiliates. Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups such as in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Given the Middle East tensions, Jewish communities and places of worship will likely face elevated threats through Jewish Passover (Pesach)

holiday (12-20 April), particularly in Western countries. For example, a man in September 2024 was arrested by Canadian authorities on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack against Jewish communities during Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (11-12 October) in New York (US). Christian Easter holiday (18-20 April) is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past (Sri Lanka in 2019).

The number of global terrorism incidents almost doubled from 2023 to 2024. The increase was predominately attributed to the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, and Lebanese Shia movement, Hizbullah, during the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, there has been a sharp decline in incidents since December 2024 due to ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hizbullah on 28 November and Israel and Hamas on 17 January. Nevertheless, a

Celebrating 30 years in partnership The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Focus on: Outlook for Middle East and Ukraine conflicts

Meanwhile, Israel has increased the frequency and intensity of its military operations across the West Bank against militant infrastructure. Palestinian militants maintain an operational presence to launch small-scale attacks, where hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens and settlements represent likely targets for attacks. In parallel, Israel will likely accelerate efforts to annex areas of the West Bank. However, in the coming months, annexation measures will be incremental and focus on integrating areas already under Israeli control. Gaza over the coming months is likely to remain in limbo between temporary or informal ceasefires and a more complete resolution. However, the eventual outcome of a one-to- two-year transition will most realistically involve a power transfer to an independent Palestinian technocratic team approved by most conflict stakeholders and mediators. In a credible alternative scenario, Israel could resume hostilities over the coming year to create the conditions for its long-term control over Gaza or a US takeover as repeatedly proposed by US President Donald Trump. Similarly, the outlook for the Ukraine conflict remains complicated. The talks instigated in February between the US and Russia on the war appear likely to continue in the coming weeks and months, but a negotiated settlement remains uncertain this year. The discussions so far –while symbolic – did little to clarify the US or Russian approaches to negotiations or whether these approaches can be aligned.

Key takeaways

Global war incidents 2020-25 War incidents in Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestinian Territories and Lebanon have significantly increased since 2020. Source: Seerist war incidents

The future of the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) remains extremely uncertain with diverse stakeholders holding conflicting views and priorities on post-conflict governance. Negotiations will be fraught, but regional tensions are likely to remain subdued over the coming weeks. Should the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Palestinian Islamist militant movement Hamas fully break down, stability in the region would deteriorate sharply. In particular, the Yemen-based Houthi militants would renew attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. continue in the coming weeks and month, but a negotiated settlement remains uncertain this year. Any progress continues to depend on whether Russia is willing to soften its hardline demands once the negotiating teams begin discussing details. The Gaza conflict is likely to remain in limbo between temporary or informal ceasefires and a more complete resolution in the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, Israel will likely accelerate efforts to annex areas of the West Bank, though the process will remain piecemeal and primarily focused on integrating areas already under Israeli control. The talks between the US and Russia on the war in Ukraine appear likely to

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Russia invades Ukraine, Feb2022

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Global number of war incidents, incl. incidents linked to Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts Global number of war incidents, excl. incidents linked to Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts

The initial talks excluded two key stakeholders, Ukraine and Europe. This has engendered a major crisis in US-European relations, but even the Trump administration has previously acknowledged that Ukraine and Europe would need to have a say in any deal to end the conflict. Russia’s maximalist demands would be unacceptable to Ukraine and its European allies. Many European governments worry that any concession of Ukrainian territory could set a dangerous precedent for countries seeking to undermine another state’s territorial integrity by force.

Any progress in negotiations continues to depend on whether Russia is willing to soften its hardline demands once the negotiating teams begin discussing details. The war in Ukraine is almost certain to continue in parallel with talks in the coming weeks and likely months. Despite calls for a ceasefire, the Trump administration has indicated its willingness to continue selling arms to Europe for use in Ukraine and a resource deal with Ukraine could see it provide continued military support.

The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 About Us

Celebrating 30 years in partnership

The Hiscox Crisis Management division serves both corporate and private clients. Our exclusive partnership with Control Risks allows us to combine renowned insurance expertise with unparalleled security risk and crisis management capability to protect what matters most to our clients. We are the global leaders in this sector. Celebrating 30 years in partnership, Hiscox and Control Risks have helped policyholders manage thousands of crisis events, including complex security and integrity issues. Together, we combine our insurance expertise with Control Risks’ capabilities across security risk and crisis management, protecting what matters most to our clients.

Control Risks is a global specialist risk consultancy. We are committed to helping our clients build organisations that are secure, compliant and resilient in an age of ever-changing risk. We believe that responsible risk-taking is at the core of our clients’ success. We have unparalleled experience in helping clients ready themselves for, respond to and recover from challenges and crises that arise in any ambitious organisation seeking to convert risk into opportunity globally. Terrorism Hiscox has established itself as the market-leading provider of war, terrorism and political violence insurance for the last 25 years, offering financial protection and world-class response services to our clients all around the world. We offer a diverse portfolio of options within our terrorism suite of products to ensure our clients are adequately protected against and prepared to respond to the latest global threats. We insure some of the biggest organisations in the world, across 130 different countries including some of the most volatile regions. We have the ability to write every major coverage type in the market, and also have a selection of unique products designed and developed by our in-house team.

In business since 1901, Hiscox is one of the most trusted and influential Lloyd’s of London syndicates. Whether it’s protecting family homes from a storm surge or hail damage, helping to safeguard blue-chip companies from the crippling financial and reputational costs of a cyber-attack, or working to keep employees safe and businesses operational following a terrorist incident, we continue to innovate to respond to some of the most complex, volatile and emerging risks.

Key coverages include:

Terrorism physical damage Terrorism business interruption Riots, strikes, civil commotion and malicious damage Terrorism liability Contingent cover Broad political violence including or excluding war/civil war Malicious attack Confiscation, expropriation, nationalisation and deprivation (CEND) Lenders’ interests Nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological (NCBR) Threat

For more information about Hiscox or Control Risks, please contact: Rich Halstead richard.halstead@hiscox.com hiscox.com Jenny Wells-Cole jenny.wellscole@controlrisks.com controlrisks.com Raj Rana raj.rana@marsh.com marsh.com

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