The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Global outlook–March to May 2025
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Bolivia: Political instability will remain elevated ahead of presidential elections on 17 August. Tensions between President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales (2006-2019) will continue to spark disruptive protests, including sporadic violent clashes. Mexico: Violence will continue to rise as campaigns for the first judicial elections begin in March. In 2024, armed attacks, disappearances and kidnappings against political actors surged to historic highs. US: The Trump administration’s early actions, including shutting government agencies and pardoning those convicted for the January 2021 US Capitol insurrection, are likely to drive sporadic unrest in the coming months. Congo (DRC): Fighting between Congolese security forces and the M23 armed group is likely to remain intense in eastern DRC as M23’s offensive continues in North and South Kivu. Any ceasefire would be fragile. Congo (DRC): Continued fighting and potential further military setbacks for the Congolese authorities will sustain an elevated threat of violent unrest in urban areas, including the capital Kinshasa. Mozambique: The threat of civil unrest has fallen after a campaign of widespread protests in late 2024, but small, brief and localised protests will remain frequent.
Israel/Palestinian Territories: The ceasefire in Gaza will remain fragile with a possibility for its breakdown after US President Donald Trump shifted Tel Aviv’s strategic calculations and lowered its assessment of the costs associated with resuming hostilities. Iran: The US’s intent to use sanctions to increase pressure on Iran will drive Tehran to retaliate against Washington by, among other measures, refusing to engage in talks until the White House offers de-escalatory measures. Australia: Antisemitic violence will be driven by Middle East tensions and political debate in the lead-up to the federal election (due by May). Attacks, mostly vandalism and arson, are likely to target Jewish communities, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney. New Caledonia: Ongoing talks will likely reignite tensions between the pro-French and pro-independence factions. Clashes between factions and with police are likely in the capital Noumea and surrounding cities. South Korea: While the peak of protests over the failed martial law attempt by impeached president Yoon Suk-yeol has passed, pro- and anti-Yoon protests remain potential flashpoints.
Ukraine: Ukraine will seek to retain control of parts of Russia’s Kursk region, while Moscow maximises its advances alongside negotiations instigated by US President Donald Trump. Regardless, the security situation will remain fragile. Kosovo: No party secured a majority in the parliamentary elections on 9 February, increasing the threat of political volatility and civil unrest in the months ahead. Ethnic Serb militant groups may exploit the uncertainty to carry out acts of sabotage or small-scale attacks against security forces.
Serbia: The prime minister in January resigned following months of large-scale protests related to the fatal collapse of a rail station roof in November 2024. There is potential for snap elections in the coming months, as well as for protests to continue. Yemen: Despite the partial suspension of attacks against vessels, the threat of the Houthi rebel movement resuming its hostile activity in the Red Sea persists in tangent to developments in Gaza (Palestinian Territories).
Outlook
Greenland (Denmark) 11 March
Gabon 12 April
Global 1 May
Romania 4 May
Albania 11 May
Philippines 12 May
Poland 18 May
Suriname 25 May Legislative elections
General elections
Presidential election
Presidential election
May Day
Presidential election
Parliamentary elections
Territorial elections
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