The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Focus on: Global Islamist extremist threat
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breakdown in ceasefire conditions – some of which are up for renegotiation in March – and/or inflammatory rhetoric by key stakeholders, including the US, will likely increase Islamist extremists’ intent to mount attacks. The conflict will likely continue to motivate Islamist extremist threats in Europe, North America and Australia, where the most likely scenario remains a small-scale attack by an individual or small group against soft targets. Robust counterterrorism capabilities in these regions will mitigate threats to high-profile targets, including religious locations, diplomatic facilities and major events. Transnational terrorist groups will continue to rely on inciting small-scale attacks by their supporters abroad, including those radicalised or motivated by the conflict. Islamic State (IS) in 2024 benefited from a distracted international community and reduced counterterrorism pressures by increasing its capabilities in rural areas and the Badiya desert in Syria. This will likely be further driven by the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime (2000-24) in December 2024. The dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) under the new US President Donald Trump may also contribute to further reducing counterterrorism pressures. IS will exploit the ongoing power transition in Syria and distracted counterterror coalition to expand its operations. In the coming months, the terrorism threat is likely to be further elevated as several major religious holidays take place. The Muslim holy
Key takeaways
Islamist extremist incidents, by region
Source: Seerist
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Developments in the Middle East, including the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon as well as the change in regime in Syria, will continue to impact regional and global terrorism threats. Global terrorism threat levels will be elevated during key religious holidays in the coming quarter, including the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Christian Easter period and the Jewish Passover (Pesach) holiday. In Western countries, the most likely targets for attacks will remain crowded public spaces, including shopping districts and public events, though the
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number of religious holidays will increase the threat to religious buildings or events.
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The most likely scenario is a small- scale attack by an individual or small group against a soft target.
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Africa
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month of Ramadan (28 February-30 March) typically coincides with an uptick in attacks, often following exhortations from groups including IS, al-Qaida and their affiliates. Large-scale and complex attacks are most likely in regions with active militant or insurgent groups such as in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Given the Middle East tensions, Jewish communities and places of worship will likely face elevated threats through Jewish Passover (Pesach)
holiday (12-20 April), particularly in Western countries. For example, a man in September 2024 was arrested by Canadian authorities on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack against Jewish communities during Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur (11-12 October) in New York (US). Christian Easter holiday (18-20 April) is not generally associated with elevated violent extremist threats, though attacks have targeted religious services in some countries in the past (Sri Lanka in 2019).
The number of global terrorism incidents almost doubled from 2023 to 2024. The increase was predominately attributed to the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, and Lebanese Shia movement, Hizbullah, during the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, there has been a sharp decline in incidents since December 2024 due to ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hizbullah on 28 November and Israel and Hamas on 17 January. Nevertheless, a
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