Celebrating 30 years in partnership The Global Advisor Terrorism, War and Civil Unrest | March 2025 Focus on: Outlook for Middle East and Ukraine conflicts
Meanwhile, Israel has increased the frequency and intensity of its military operations across the West Bank against militant infrastructure. Palestinian militants maintain an operational presence to launch small-scale attacks, where hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens and settlements represent likely targets for attacks. In parallel, Israel will likely accelerate efforts to annex areas of the West Bank. However, in the coming months, annexation measures will be incremental and focus on integrating areas already under Israeli control. Gaza over the coming months is likely to remain in limbo between temporary or informal ceasefires and a more complete resolution. However, the eventual outcome of a one-to- two-year transition will most realistically involve a power transfer to an independent Palestinian technocratic team approved by most conflict stakeholders and mediators. In a credible alternative scenario, Israel could resume hostilities over the coming year to create the conditions for its long-term control over Gaza or a US takeover as repeatedly proposed by US President Donald Trump. Similarly, the outlook for the Ukraine conflict remains complicated. The talks instigated in February between the US and Russia on the war appear likely to continue in the coming weeks and months, but a negotiated settlement remains uncertain this year. The discussions so far –while symbolic – did little to clarify the US or Russian approaches to negotiations or whether these approaches can be aligned.
Key takeaways
Global war incidents 2020-25 War incidents in Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestinian Territories and Lebanon have significantly increased since 2020. Source: Seerist war incidents
The future of the Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) remains extremely uncertain with diverse stakeholders holding conflicting views and priorities on post-conflict governance. Negotiations will be fraught, but regional tensions are likely to remain subdued over the coming weeks. Should the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Palestinian Islamist militant movement Hamas fully break down, stability in the region would deteriorate sharply. In particular, the Yemen-based Houthi militants would renew attacks against shipping in the Red Sea. continue in the coming weeks and month, but a negotiated settlement remains uncertain this year. Any progress continues to depend on whether Russia is willing to soften its hardline demands once the negotiating teams begin discussing details. The Gaza conflict is likely to remain in limbo between temporary or informal ceasefires and a more complete resolution in the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, Israel will likely accelerate efforts to annex areas of the West Bank, though the process will remain piecemeal and primarily focused on integrating areas already under Israeli control. The talks between the US and Russia on the war in Ukraine appear likely to
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Hamas attacks Israel, Oct 2023
Russia invades Ukraine, Feb2022
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Global number of war incidents, incl. incidents linked to Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts Global number of war incidents, excl. incidents linked to Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts
The initial talks excluded two key stakeholders, Ukraine and Europe. This has engendered a major crisis in US-European relations, but even the Trump administration has previously acknowledged that Ukraine and Europe would need to have a say in any deal to end the conflict. Russia’s maximalist demands would be unacceptable to Ukraine and its European allies. Many European governments worry that any concession of Ukrainian territory could set a dangerous precedent for countries seeking to undermine another state’s territorial integrity by force.
Any progress in negotiations continues to depend on whether Russia is willing to soften its hardline demands once the negotiating teams begin discussing details. The war in Ukraine is almost certain to continue in parallel with talks in the coming weeks and likely months. Despite calls for a ceasefire, the Trump administration has indicated its willingness to continue selling arms to Europe for use in Ukraine and a resource deal with Ukraine could see it provide continued military support.
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