COMMENT
HOW DONALD TRUMP’S ECONOMIC DECISIONS ARE RESHAPING CAPEX IN SOUTH AFRICA
W hen U.S. policy shifts, the ripple effects are global. Since early 2025 the Trump administration’s embrace of tariffs and a more protectionist trade stance - together with a broader recalibra- tion of U.S. industrial and energy policy - has added fresh uncertainty to com- modity markets, financing conditions and global supply chains. Those changes are now being felt in boardrooms and project pipelines across South Africa’s capital-in- tensive sectors - mining, construction, transport, and freight & logistics. Tariffs and trade frictions tend to depress global growth expectations and commodity demand. Analysts warned late in 2024 and through 2025 that higher U.S. tariffs would put downward pressure on bulk commodity prices - iron ore, crude oil and LNG among them - which in turn squeezes mining revenues and weakens the case for new
project spending. For South African miners, whose capex decisions hinge on medium- term price forecasts, that means deferred or scaled-back investments in expansion projects, mechanisation and energy- intensive upgrades. Protectionist policy increases geopolitical and trade risk premiums. That raises the cost of capital for projects in emerging markets. Even when local fundamentals are sound, foreign investors and lenders demand higher returns or tighter conditions - translating into delayed sanctioning of brownfield expansions and new greenfield projects. South Africa’s mining sector, already contending with power insecurity and regulatory hurdles, has become more sensitive to global financing spreads; PwC’s sector reporting shows companies focusing capex on productivity and energy-security rather than aggressive growth. Trump-era tariffs and policy signals have encouraged some reshoring and regional supplier diversification. For South African construction and heavy-equipment suppliers this is a mixed bag. On one hand, a reconfiguration of global supply chains can create opportunities. On the other hand, higher import costs for critical equipment and steel (where U.S. tariff actions in 2025 affected global flows) lift input prices and squeeze contractor margins, nudging firms to postpone capex on new fleets, plant and large civil projects. Logistics capex is being shaped by two
countervailing forces. Increased trade uncertainty softens volumes and can reduce immediate investment appetite for port expansions and private terminal projects. Yet, strategic responses are accelerating targeted spending to shore up resilience. A recent €300-million loan to Transnet to rehabilitate rail and modernise ports underscores how external financing and conditional support are filling gaps and nudging capex toward rail-modal upgrades and greener energy solutions. On the ground, the pattern is not uniform. The Minerals Council and national data show declining mining GDP and cautious capex planning in 2025, but companies are selectively spending on projects that improve resilience - renewable energy, water security, mechanisation and maintenance - rather than speculative expansion. Transport and logistics players are likewise prioritising asset renewal and digital tracking, while large civil contractors hold back on new capacity until demand visibility improves. In short: Donald Trump’s economic decisions have not directly targeted South Africa, but through tariffs, trade uncertainty and global risk repricing they have altered the incentives and timelines that determine capital expenditure in mining, construction, transport and logistics - prompting firms to pause big bets and concentrate on resilience, productivity and targeted infrastructure that keeps goods moving even in a more volatile world. b
Wilhelm du Plessis - MANAGING EDITOR
capnews@crown.co.za
@CapEquipNews
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CAPITAL EQUIPMENT NEWS DEC '25 - JAN 2026
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