CAPEX OUTLOOK: 2026
Shift in buyer behaviour: the era of outcome-based procurement Procurement behaviour across sectors is evolving quickly. Buyers are focusing increasingly on uptime, lifecycle cost and service performance rather than comparing machines purely on upfront price. This shift means that telematics and digital fleet management capabilities are now expected rather than optional. Predictive maintenance solutions are becoming essential for larger fleets, as operators pursue more certainty around utilisation and avoiding breakdowns. Equipment-as-a-service models, including rental, subscription and bundled support contracts, are gaining traction as they provide predictable costs and reduce capital pressure. Sustainability requirements are also influencing procurement decisions, with low-emission and electrified equipment being favoured on projects governed by green standards. Several risks could affect capex momentum. Public projects may face delays if budgets are reprioritised, and interest rate fluctuations will continue to influence contractors’ access to financing. Global supply-chain shifts could create bottlenecks for electrical and automation components, while technical skills shortages in fields such as digital diagnostics and equipment servicing may become more pronounced. What winning suppliers will do The companies most likely to succeed in 2026 will be those that build flexibility into their operating model. This includes investing in rental and service fleets that can be deployed quickly and partnering with financial institutions to ensure a broad base of customers can access the equipment they need. Alignment with the national and industrial energy transition will be crucial, especially in grid and renewable-related categories. Digital service capabilities must be strengthened as downtime reduction becomes central to customer expectations, and suppliers will need to build strong local compliance and skills capacity to remain competitive on large infrastructure programmes. The 2026 capex market is not defined by a dramatic boom, but by increasingly targeted investment. For companies in the capital equipment sector, this is a year where strategy outweighs scale. The winners will be those who read the pipeline accurately, support customers beyond the sale, and embrace the technologies and financing models reshaping how equipment is purchased and used. b
upward, particularly in transport, water, sanitation and energy infrastructure. National and municipal investment frameworks published through 2025 have set out clearer pipelines, even if delivery will remain uneven. For the construction and civils sectors - historically the backbone of heavy equipment demand - this matters enormously. Large water projects, wastewater upgrades, regional road rehabilitation, and grid-capacity improvements are beginning to drive more predictable tendering cycles. Although not all these projects move at the same pace, the direction is upward. At the same time, private-sector investment remains largely project-driven, especially in logistics, renewable energy, data centres and advanced manufacturing. Mining capex, while stable, is unlikely to surge until commodity markets strengthen. However, replacement cycles for yellow metal equipment continue, supporting steady but not spectacular demand. The biggest constraint remains financing, both for the projects themselves and for contractors needing access to equipment. This is where suppliers who can offer vendor finance, lease-to-own options or integrated long- term service contracts will distinguish themselves. Energy and power infrastructure The strongest prospects in 2026 lie within energy and power infrastructure. While renewable-generation projects will continue, the real momentum is shifting to grid upgrades, substation expansions and industrial connection works. These activities require cranes, lifting equipment, specialised civil plant, transformers, switchgear and a broader
range of electrical and mechanical components. Steady investment in these segments should keep demand firm through the year. Construction and transport Construction and transport infrastructure will continue to generate reliable equipment demand. Road rehabilitation programmes, bridge upgrades and municipal infrastructure maintenance are expected to support the use of earthmoving machines, compaction equipment and concrete technologies. Contractors are increasingly turning to rental and hybrid fleet models as a way to control costs and align equipment access more closely with project timelines. Manufacturing is expected to deepen its commitment to automation in 2026. More factories are investing in robotics, advanced material-handling systems, tooling, and connected industrial machinery. This market may be smaller than construction, but its growth Manufacturing and industrial automation trajectory is stronger and margins for suppliers tend to be higher due to the technical nature of the equipment and the long-term service relationships it creates. Mining and minerals processing Mining is likely to remain cautious, with investment decisions tied closely to commodity prices. Still, replacement capex will continue in haulage, loading, drilling and processing equipment. Digital systems aimed at predictive maintenance, fleet optimisation and energy efficiency represent a notable growth segment as mines aim to reduce operating costs and prolong equipment life.
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CAPITAL EQUIPMENT NEWS DEC '25 - JAN 2026
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