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Our Forecast:
Prices have remained steady throughout much of the year, and the short- term fundamentals still look good. Storage levels across the UK and Europe are in a comfortable position for this stage of winter, and early cold spells have so far been limited. Strong supply from LNG and Norwegian pipelines has also helped keep wholesale prices well below the highs we experienced last winter. However, this stability may not continue for long. As winter progresses, colder temperatures typically increase demand for gas heating and electricity, especially when wind output falls away. We are already beginning to see signs of this shift and the same seasonal pressures that have lifted prices in previous years, are now starting to emerge again. While we are not forecasting a return to the extreme volatility of recent winters, a gradual rise in wholesale prices is likely over the coming months. Unless there is a major breakthrough in the stalled peace efforts in Ukraine that reduces geopolitical risk, suppliers will begin to price in the possibility of tighter margins and stronger demand. Businesses should consider their renewal options early to secure favourable terms, before these changes begin to affect contract pricing.
What to Do If You Are in Your Renewal Window:
Make the Most of the Current Low Winter Prices: This period of calm can be short-lived. Acting now could help you avoid rising costs as winter demand builds. Locking in a renewal while wholesale prices remain lower, can protect your business against later increases once market conditions tighten. Look at Longer Contract Options Even if market movements are hard to predict, a two- or three-year deal can provide valuable certainty. Securing pricing now can help businesses avoid the risk of renewed volatility and ensure more predictable budgeting through 2026 and beyond.
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