FEDERAL VS STATE REGULATION
and compliance measures to prevent access to prediction market platforms on tribal lands. 8 In parallel, tribal organizations, such as the Arizona Indian Gaming Association, have provided written comments to the CFTC expressing similar concerns. 9 Chair James Siva of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association voiced concern over prediction market apps, citing them as “much more concern[ing] for tribes, at the moment” than daily fantasy sports betting apps. 10 Case Updates Initially, Kalshi succeeded in obtaining preliminary injunctions in Nevada and New Jersey but failed to obtain an injunction in Maryland. 11 More recently, the same Nevada court denied another prediction market platform provider an injunction that would have allowed it to continue operations during the ongoing litigation, reigniting arguments on both sides over the Nevada injunction. 12 The Nevada court’s more recent interpretation of the definition of “swap”—one type of derivative contract—fell in favor of the state of Nevada. In response, Kalshi has urged interested parties to challenge the CFTC’s interpretation under the CEA using the Administrative Procedure Act rather than directly litigate with Kalshi. Kalshi’s and trading platform rivals Robinhood’s response briefs in the Blue Lake Rancheria et al v. Kalshi Inc. et al
lawsuit assert that the CEA overrides IGRA, and that tribes are “attempt[ing] to regulate trading on an exchange operated from thousands of miles away.” They further assert that, if tribes prevail, prediction market operators may be required to geofence tribal lands out of their markets in California, which some speculate would lead to “a domino effect” of tribes nationwide making similar requests. On November 10, 2025, the United States District Court for the Northern District of California denied the tribes’ motion seeking a preliminary injunction against Kalshi on the grounds that they failed to show a likelihood of success for alleged violations of the IGRA and the Lanham Act. In so ruling, the Court determined that it did not have jurisdiction over the IGRA claim, opining that IGRA only governs internet gaming by the tribes but no other party (such as Kalshi), and that instead the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (“UIGEA”) instead was applicable to Kalshi’s operations. As for the Lanham Act claim, the Court found that the Kalshi advertisements merely stated an opinion that its product is legal, and failed to support a showing of competitive injury. The lawsuit is far from over, as the Court is set to hear argument on Kalshi’s pending motion to dismiss in March of 2026. Further, the tribes may have grounds to seek an appeal of the injunction denial from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. In the meantime, Kalshi may continue to operate trades on prediction markets in California.
public/case/59135061/Blue_Lake_Rancheria_et_al_v_KALSHI_INC_et_al. At the time this article was written, the District Court of Northern California issued a decision on November 10, 2025, denying the tribes’ request for an injunction and determining that the tribes were not likely to prevail on the merits. As such, it is unclear at this point whether and how the lawsuit will proceed. 8 Staudenmaier & Vanderkarr, supra note 1; see also Price, supra note 7. 9 Vanderkarr & Kintner, supra note 1; see also U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Comm’n (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Events/Com- mentsPredictionMarketsRoundtable) (last visited Apr. 21, 2025); Brady Dale, Axios Crypto Newsletter, Axios (Apr. 17, 2025), https://www. axios.com/newsletters/axios-crypto-adae5270-1ade-11f0-8d2b-e1710080eba6.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_cam- paign=newsletter_axioscryptocurrency&stream=business; U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Comm’n, Comments: Prediction Markets Roundtable, https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Events/CommentsPredictionMarketsRoundtable (last visited Apr. 21, 2025). 10 Ashley Zavala, Robinhood, Kalshi Face Pushback From California Gaming Tribes Over Sports Wagers , KCRA (Oct. 19, 2025), https://www.kcra.com/article/robinhood-kalshi-california-gaming-tribes-sports-california-politics-360/69042671. 11 Staudenmaier & Vanderkarr, supra note 1; see also Pacifico Agnellini, Greg Brower & William Downey, Third Time’s The Charm for Gambling Regulators in Kalshi Litigatio n, BHFS Insights (Aug. 11, 2025), https://www.bhfs.com/insight/third-times-the-charm-for-gambling-regulators-in-kalshi-litigation/. 12 Daniel O’Boyle, Sports Contracts Access Shut Off in Nevada, as Kalshi Aims to Avoid Same Fate , InGame (Nov. 3, 2025), https://www.ingame.com/crypto-com-shuts-off-sports-nevada/.
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IMGL MAGAZINE | DECEMBER 2025
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