REGULATORY REFORM IN ROMANIA
outcomes of events and thereby collectively forecasts the likelihood of events such as sports results, political elections, or entertainment awards. Polymarket’s design thus merges the mechanics of speculative trading with elements traditionally associated with gambling: a monetary stake, an uncertain outcome, and the expectation of financial gain. The platform’s branding emphasizes prediction and information efficiency, yet its community discussions and social media presence frequently use betting terminology, further blurring the conceptual line between market speculation and wagering. In the view of the ONJN, this structure satisfies all the elements of a prohibited unlicensed gambling service: there is a stake (users risking money for potential gain), an uncertain future event determining the outcome, a counterparty for the bet, and an operator acting as intermediary for a fee. The fact that the mechanism is implemented via blockchain smart contracts or that outcomes are framed as “markets” does not change its legal nature. ONJN noted that Polymarket’s own interface and user community colloquially refer to “placing bets” with crypto on the site, underscoring that it is perceived as a betting platform in practice - press release from 30 October 2025. Beyond its regulatory implications, Polymarket has recently drawn significant global attention as one of the most prominent blockchain-based prediction markets. In late 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange) announced an investment of up to US$2 billion in Polymarket, as part of a broader partnership focused on market data and analytics. Around the same time, Google began integrating Polymarket’s real-time probability data into Google Search and Google Finance, effectively bringing event-trading metrics into mainstream financial information tools. These developments have positioned Polymarket at the intersection of financial innovation and regulatory scrutiny, illustrating both commercial appeal and legal ambiguity surrounding decentralized prediction markets. These developments have further blurred the boundaries between speculative trading and regulated wagering, reinforcing the policy relevance of Romania’s decision to treat such activity as gambling rather than unregulated market innovation. In this broader context, it may also be noted
Black market betting and the Polymarket ban One of the most notable enforcement actions came on October 29, 2025, when Romania’s National Office for Gambling decided to add the Polymarket platform to its blacklist of unauthorized gaming sites. Polymarket is a prominent blockchain-based prediction market that allows users to bet on future events, from elections to sports, using cryptocurrency. During Romania’s recent election season, activity on Polymarket surged dramatically as the platform’s trading volumes during the presidential race reportedly exceeded US$600 million in cumulative value. ONJN viewed this as a massive amount of unregulated betting taking place entirely outside the licensed environment. Beyond its immediate practical effect, the decision sent a broader regulatory message: that Romania’s gambling laws apply based on substance rather than form. The authority’s reasoning reflected a principle it saw as embedded in national practice, namely that wagering on an uncertain future event for monetary gain constitutes gambling, regardless of the medium or token used. In this sense, the ruling drew a clear line between innovation and circumvention: technological sophistication, including blockchain execution or decentralized settlement, cannot exempt operators from compliance with licensing, fiscal, or responsible gambling requirements. By extending the scope of enforcement to a decentralized, crypto-funded platform with international reach, Romania reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining a level playing field between licensed and unlicensed operators. This approach demonstrates the country’s intent to ensure that innovation in the gambling ecosystem evolves within the parameters of existing law. The move underscored the position that regulatory neutrality toward technology does not imply permissiveness, but rather the consistent application of established legal standards across new and emerging channels of risk. It also stands as an emerging policy benchmark within the European market, where comparable debates on the treatment of “prediction markets” remain ongoing. According to Polymarket’s own documentation, a prediction market allows participants to buy and sell “shares” in th e
IMGL MAGAZINE | DECEMBER 2025
PAGE 43
Made with FlippingBook flipbook maker