production of lead would increase from 121 kt to 215 kt in 2040, zinc production would increase from 603 kt to 710 kt, aluminum production would increase from 17 tons to 80 tons, and gold production would nearly double, increasing from 501 kt to 1,008 kt. Besides the expansion of these four metals, Alaska has the poten- tial to produce significant quantities of critical minerals used for green technologies and energy production. Mineral production could be ex- panded to produce 110 kt of copper per year (excluding the potential from Pebble Mine), rare earth el - ements could be produced at 1,828 tons per year, graphite at 55,350 tons per year, barite at 237 kt per year, and 1,570 tons per year of cobalt. According to these numbers, Alaska could produce 100 percent or more of current U.S production for cobalt, silver, and graphite. As well as 90 percent of the U.S.’s cur - rent production of zinc. Under the favorable scenario, Alaska’s mining industry would double and its ex- port base would grow to 5.6 billion dollars. While zinc and gold would
remain Alaska’s primary exports, multiple critical minerals would be added to Alaska’s exports (Loeffler & Watson, 2022). Expanding Alaska’s production to include several critical minerals will enhance Alaska’s capabilities as a crucial producer of domestic min- erals. Another vital component to consider is the U.S current depen - dency on foreign sources for pro- cessing of critical minerals. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Fuel and Carbon Management acknowledges this in a report where they detail that cur- rent domestic production of many critical minerals necessary for clean energy technologies is practically nonexistent. The U.S is 100 per - cent import dependent for graph- ite and rare earth minerals and over 75 percent import dependent on cobalt and barite (2021). Alas - ka has the capabilities to produce all of these minerals in significant quantities. Domestic sourcing along with development of critical min- eral processing and manufacturing facilities are necessary for becoming independent of foreign supply. With its large capabilities to pro-
duce critical minerals, Alaska is well situated to become an integral part of a domestic critical minerals supply chain. Alaska is a state rich in miner- als that have yet to be fully utilized and the transition to clean ener- gy has massive implications for Alaska’s mining industry. Alaska has the unique capacity to produce significant quantities of six critical minerals necessary for clean energy technologies: copper, cobalt, zinc, graphite, rare earth minerals and aluminum. In the case of zinc and aluminum, existing production can drastically increase. Expanding pro- duction to cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earth minerals will con- siderably increase the United States domestic production of these critical minerals. Copper, while not on the critical minerals list, will be in high demand and integral to the electrification ac - companying clean energies. Among all the projected scenarios, it can be guaranteed that demand for Alaskan minerals will rise. The determining factor will be ensuring the correct conditions for Alaska’s mining in- dustry to grow with this demand.
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Winter 2023
The Alaska Miner
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