Do you expect a recession in 2019 or 2020, and if yes how will that impact the housing market? 6
Where are mortgage interest rates headed in 2019? Why? Implications? 5
ECONOMIST
2019 MORTGAGE RATES
ECONOMIST
RECESSION IN 2019 OR 2020?
“The recession itself will likely be caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly or the U.S. Administration continuing its trade war with China.” - GARDNER
Zandi
Up to 5.5%
Zandi
Highest risk in 2020
Yun
Up to 5.5%
Yun
No in 2019, less certain in 2020
Terrazas
Up 100 to 125 basis points to ~6%
Terrazas
No
“A 30-year, fixed rate, conforming mortgage of close to 6 percent —which, while still low by historic standards, will impact certain buyers’ budgets and force some to consider smaller, less-expensive homes and/or homes in somewhat more affordable areas." - TERRAZAS
Kiefer
Up to above 5%
Kiefer
No
Kapfidze
Up 50 basis points
Kapfidze
No, but rising risk
“History tells us that engineering a soft landing is hard to do. In the event of a mild recession, housing could provide a cushion for the economy.” - DUNCAN
Gardner
Up to 5.5%
Gardner
Yes
Duncan
Up to 5.5%
Duncan
No
How will population and job migration patterns impact regional housing trends in 2019? 7
"The labor market and inflation expectations are upside risks to rates while political instability, including trade tensions, are downside risks.” - KAPFIDZE
“Hello Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Nevada. Increasing number of tax filers will begin to recognize a higher cost of living in California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York from inability to fully deduct mortgage interest and state and local taxes.” - YUN
"The era of high homebuyer
“The Federal Reserve will raise its short-terms rates by two or three times (not four or five times) in 2019. Consumer price inflation may have already peaked.” - YUN
“The Trump Administration’s anti-immigration policies have begun to reduce household formations and thus housing demand. This will become more evident in 2019.” - ZANDI
affordability and dirt- cheap mortgage rates is probably over.” - KIEFER
76 | think realty magazine :: january / february 2019
thinkrealty . com | 77
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