MARKET DATA& ANALYSIS
Miami Beach, FL
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
PRICE ABOVE INCOME PRICE
HOME PRICE INCREASE (3-YEAR)
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR
POPULATION
2,662,874
39%
28%
Miami - Miami Beach, FL
1,611,050
38%
31%
San Francisco - San Mateo, CA
3,145,515
35%
19%
Anaheim - Santa Ana, CA
4,441,890
34%
25%
Riverside - San Bernardino, CA
2,754,258
34%
34%
Denver - Aurora, CO
2,915,582
31%
34%
Tampa - St. Petersburg, FL
Bubbles for the NewYear? RISING PRICES IN THESE FIFTEEN MARKETS COULD MAKE THEM RISKY INVESTMENTS.
will continue to rise in these markets during 2019 - that's our forecast - but investors need to have a risk-mitigation strategy in mind right now. •
1,943,299
31%
23%
Austin, Round Rock, TX
2,839,550
30%
41%
Seattle - Bellevue, WA
2,722,260
28%
30%
Oakland - Fremont, CA
10,116,705
28%
26%
Los Angeles - Long Beach, CA
by Ingo Winzer
IngoWinzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and
1,952,872
27%
29%
San Jose - Sunnyvale, CA
he champagne may be flowing on New Years, but a brief celebration
price, a calculated value that has been infallible over the past 30 years in iden- tifying over-priced markets. Prices in these markets increased from 20 to 40 percent over the last three years. It's riskier to invest in markets where prices are more than 20 percent higher than the income price, because even-
tually prices always come back to the "income" level. That can happen grad- ually - as the "income" price increases with local income. Or it can happen with a crash - as we saw in the last recession. The problem is that we don't know which way it will be - or when, exactly. It's most likely that home prices
T
664,422
27%
43%
Boise City - Nampa, ID
growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate mar- kets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com.
for how well real estate markets have done in the past year must be followed by a sober assessment of those markets that may be in a price bubble themselves. We've listed 15 markets where home prices are now well above the "income"
1,153,340
27%
32%
Salt Lake City, UT
443,990
27%
37%
Reno - Sparks, NV
4,489,109
27%
28%
Phoenix - Mesa, AZ
Source :: Local Market Monitor, 2018
82 | think realty magazine :: january / february 2019
thinkrealty . com | 83
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