fears among member states. This is not surprising, given these countries’ geographic proximity to Russia and long history of being on the receiving end of Russian imperialism, manifested most recently in Russia’s armed annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine. For these countries – starting with Poland and the Baltic states – America’s integration in European defense through NATO is indispensable. Given the geopolitical risks on Europe’s eastern flank, NATO provides a necessary form of insurance, and even fosters solidarity and unity within the EU, by requiring that each member contribute its fair share to the greater good. Trump’s nationalist shift, under the slogan “America first,” has suddenly forced Europe to confront the question of its own sovereignty, which means becoming an independent technological power with the ability to act decisively as a united front. The EU never would have done so of its own volition. Trump, whatever his intent, is forcing Europe to reinvent itself. To preserve NATO, the EU must act as if the alliance was already gone. Joschka Fischer was German foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.
NATO’s future is more uncertain now than at any time in its history.
of “if ” than “when.” When will Trump finally decide that it’s time to call the whole thing off? For Europeans, it would be the height of folly to sit back and wait for the fateful tweet to arrive. Macron understands this, whereas Germany, in typical fashion, is paying mere lip service to its old commitments, promising to increase its defense spending but making little real headway. Macron understands that the rupture in Europe’s defense following a withdrawal of U.S. troops would be far more severe than many seem to expect. It would unfold not as some gradual, barely noticeable transition, but as a sudden break. If Europe wants to prevent – or at least delay – that outcome, it must make substantial investments in its military and expand its own capabilities on a massive scale. In other words, it must act as if the break has already happened. For much of its modern history, Europe has had to deal with two challenges: a turbulent center (Germany) and an unprotected eastern flank (Russia and now China), which has always been open in geopolitical terms. Since its founding, NATO has served as a solution to both of these problems. As one looks farther east within NATO and the EU, one encounters ever-greater security
American Consequences
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