Table 6: Local Area Median Prices (000’s) Local Median Prices (000’s) Year Marshfield Stevens Pt
to a Stage 2. This is a trend that might very well continue into the summer as the pandemic loosens its grip on the economy and more homeowners decide it would be a great time to sell because of the higher prices.
Wausau Wis Rapids
2017 2018 2019 2020
122.5
165 170 185 205
145 158 168 186
98.9
135 145
117.75 121.57
Figure 5: Supply Up
143.5
134
Direction 2021 YTD YTD Trend
UP
UP
UP
UP
159.9
194
181.7 Down
120
UP
Down
Down
During the early part of 2021, the Price trend has clearly shifted downward for Stevens Point, Wausau, and Wisconsin Rapids. Only Marshfield is continuing the upward trend that is common through most of the national markets. Table 7 looks at the trends in housing units that have been sold. Here, Marshfield has seen a decline in sales while the other 3 markets are continuing to have sales increases.
Table 8 provides a summary of the four local markets.
Table 8: Supply and Demand Causation Summary T ble
3 Yr Price Trend
3 Yr Sales Trend
S and D Cause
YTD Price Trend
Last Yr Sales Trend
S and D Cause
Table 7: Local Units Sold Local Unit Sales
Marshfield
UP
DOWN Supply Down UP
DOWN Supply DOWN
Stevens Point Wausau
UP
UP
Demand UP Demand UP Demand UP
DOWN
UP
Supply UP Supply UP SUPPY UP
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020
Marshfield Stevens Pt
Wausau Wis Rapids
UP
UP
DOWN
UP
664 646 552 581
665 684 645 692
1586 1619 1581 1664
571 584 560 635
Wis Rapids
UP
UP
DOWN
UP
Buyer’s or Seller’s Market? Two additional measures are very useful in
Direction DOWN
UP
UP
UP
understanding the local health of the real estate market. Table 9 is the median number of days a house is on the market before it sells. If this number is getting larger, it is getting more difficult to sell a house, and vice versa. The longer the typical house is on the market however, the more leverage the buyer has in the transaction. One family’s problem is another family’s opportunity. When this number changes direction, it is often seen as the beginning of a change between a buyer’s and seller’s market or at least a change in the stage within a market. Table 9: Median Days On Market Median Days O Market (DOM) Year Marshfield Stevens Pt Wausau Wis Rapids 2017 142 107 111 138 2018 121 94 94 95 2019 122 91 84 96 2020 107 84 85 85 Direction DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN 2021 YTD 125 93 93 98 Direction UP UP UP UP The three-year trend clearly shows that the market is favorable for Sellers and is consistent with the stage one analysis from the earlier section. But, when we include
What could explain the situation in Marshfield where the Prices were trending UP and Quantity Sold was going down? Figure 4 can explain the Marshfield data. The shortage of Supply seems to be the most plausible explanation for what is happening in the Marshfield area. With Supply going down, Prices would be rising, and the number of homes being sold would be decreasing.
Figure 4: Supply Down
What explains the Stevens Point, Wausau, and Wisconsin data that has Prices starting to decline and yet the number of sales is still rising. In these markets the Supply has been starting to increase which is one of the characteristics of moving from a Stage 1 Sellers’ Market
16
Center for Business and Economic Insight
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