PER 2015
“give me 20 years and I will return you a dreamlike Russia”? Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price, and the World Bank has warned that Russia's economy would shrink by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices do not recover, underscores how heavily its economy depends on energy revenues, with oil and gas accounting for 70% of export incomes. Situation is worsened with the depreciation of Rubble against other major currencies since last year, which was largely resulted from the escape of investments after EU and America sanctions, including a travel ban on key politicians and individuals, the freezing of assets, the imposition of a ban for lending to major state-owned Russian banks etc., after the illegal annexation of Crimea and ongoing conflicts in Donetsk and Lugansk. The Russian government responded the sanction by levying counter-sanctions to restrict imports of agricultural products and other consumer goods, which has driven up inflation. Putin has managed to control the oligarchs and he successfully used their assets to save the Russian central bank in 2008, we have the reason to believe he can do it again. And most importantly, his popular support has gone up to as high as 80% since last year, and if consumers consider they are worse off just because of the west, then Putin would be very safe on his post. But if sanctions are going to continue for another few years, the economy may be on the edge of collapse and nobody can predict the ending of Putin regime.
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