Fenestration Digital Magazine November 2018

F E N E S T R A T I O N D I G I T A L

CLIPPINGS AND MUSINGS - NOVEMBER - HELEN DUVAL 2018

There is a real concern that house prices could fall across the country next year, if the government fails to reach a Brexit deal, according to one senior economist. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club, expects prices to fall "modestly" if there is no agreement with Brussels; however, “a negotiated deal could see prices rise by around 2%”. Meanwhile, the UK's largest mortgage lender, the Halifax, stated that prices rose by only 1.5% this year to October, which is the lowest annual rise since March 2013. Although supply of properties is still limited, the Halifax believes house prices will continue rising, by as much as 3%, over the coming months. "Further house price support comes from an already high and improving employment rate and historically low mortgage rates which are creating higher rates of relative affordability," Russell Galley, managing director of the Halifax commented in a recent article.

"We see this continuing to be the case over the coming months and we remain supportive of our 0-3% forecast range." The average UK house price is now £227,869, but how does this relate to the north south divide? It has been suggested that the differences will narrow over the next five years with property values set to increase in Northern England by one fifth. Savills estate agent has predicted that British house prices will rise in line with average incomes from 2019 to 2024. Predictions are set to see house prices rise from 21.6% in the North West of England to 4.5% in London, with Scotland and Wales seeing property values rise by nearly 20% over the same period. The Head of residential research at Savills, recently stated that house prices in these areas were recovering more slowly than London. "Brexit angst is a major factor for market sentiment right now, particularly in London.

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