MARKET & TRENDS
BY THE NUMBERS
A Full Recovery? TEN MIGHTY MARKETS THAT ARE CANDIDATES TO COME OUT IN THE BEST SHAPE
by Ingo Winzer
Job Losses in April 2020
I
t’s a bit early to say which local real estate markets will
US Average
come out of the 2020 recession in the best shape. We don’t know how long the coronavirus will disrupt our normal life and therefore we don’t know whether financial distress will eventually force large numbers of people to sell their homes, which would cause demand to shrink and prices to fall. And we don’t know how many jobs might permanently disappear as businesses and governments are forced to streamline their operations to use fewer workers. But we can make a good start by seeing which markets have so far had the fewest job losses. The differences are striking; New York City lost 20 percent of its jobs, Grand Rapids 24 percent, Atlantic City 33 percent. Compared to those losses, the 10 markets we list this month are in good shape. These have not been COVID hotspots (so far) and we only have one month of job data. But if we are nominating candidates for a full recovery, these have to be on the list. Our Investors Metro Monitor shows you the risks and opportunities in 200 markets across the country, and How Much to Pay gives you the right price in local zip codes at www. LocalMarketMonitor.com.
-13%
-4%
Ogden, UT (pictured)
-7%
Dallas, TX
-7%
Fresno, CA
-7%
Lakeland, FL
-8%
Phoenix, AZ
-8%
Salt Lake City, UT
-8%
Birmingham, AL
-8%
Boise City, ID
-8%
Tulsa, OK
-9%
Houston, TX
LOCAL MARKET MONITOR, CARY NC
Ingo Winzer is president of Local Market Monitor, which analyzes conditions in 300 U.S. markets, using such economic data as home values and growth in employment and population. Winzer, who has analyzed real estate markets for more than 20 years, was a founder and executive vice president
of First Research, an industry research company that was acquired by Dun & Bradstreet in March 2007. He is a graduate of MIT and holds an MBA in finance from Boston University. Winzer resides in Cambridge, Mass. www.localmarketmonitor.com
72 | think realty magazine :: august 2020
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