Stock Traders Almanac - Archive

THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY Ten SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 69 YEARS Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, our January Barometer states that as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. The indicator has registered ten major errors since 1950, for an 85.5% accuracy ratio . Vietnam affected 1966 and 1968; 1982 saw the start of a major bull market in August; two January rate cuts and 9/11 affected 2001; the anticipation of military action in Iraq held down the market in January 2003; 2009 was the beginning of a new bull market; the Fed saved 2010 with QE2; QE3 likely staved off declines in 2014; global growth fears sparked selling in January 2016; and a partially inverted yield curve and trade tensions fueled Q4 selling in 2018. ( Almanac Investor newsletter subscribers receive full analysis of each reading as well as its potential implications for the full year.) Including the eight flat-year errors (less than +/− 5%) yields a 73.9% accuracy ratio. A full comparison of all monthly barometers for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ can be seen at in the January 3, 2019, Alert. Bear markets began or continued when Januarys suffered a loss ( see page 22 ). Full years followed January's direction in 12 of the last 17

presidential election years. See page 18 for more . AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR

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