Carbon-free future Under Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII), all vehicles sold in the state beginning with 2035 models must be zero-emission, namely electric, hydrogen-fueled or plug-in hybrid. California has often been a leader in progressive legislation and policies, some of which have become nation-leading movements—and this could become one, too. As California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office describes it, “The State of California is committed to achieving a just and equitable transition to carbon neutrality by 2045.”
Gas: A thing of the past? One of the most pressing questions about the new mandate: What will become of the hundreds of thousands of gas-powered vehicles on the road after the 2035 deadline? On that point, car owners don’t have to worry. Vehicles with internal combustion engines will be grandfathered in and still be permitted to operate after 2035. With the average lifespan of a car in the U.S. pegged at about 12 years, there will be a need for gasoline for decades beyond the deadline. Still, that demand is expected to decline dramatically. But the fuel shift poses another major challenge. The alteration from gas-powered to alternatively fueled vehicles will correspondingly reduce the demand for fossil fuels, a development that will ripple through the state’s entire economy. For one, what will become of the state’s plethora of gas stations? After all, fuel stations have been a small-business mainstay in California since the early part of the last century. At last official count, in 2021, there were more than 10,000 of them in the state. A few years ago, the Boston Consulting Group—a global think tank that partners with business leaders to research and report on a wide array of issues that affect society—conducted a study on American gas stations and the impact the advent of electric vehicles (EVs) will have on their continuing operation. The study found that the number of gas stations across the U.S. could decrease by 80% by 2035. Stations transformed However, as the study determined, gas stations have been declining significantly since 1978, when legislation governing fuel efficiency standards was enacted. “The rise of EVs is simply the final nail in the [gas stations’] coffin,” noted Justin Rowlatt, chief environmental correspondent for the BBC. “Electric cars are going to send the gas station business into a death spiral over the next two decades.” One very likely consideration in this regard is the idea of transforming gas stations into electrical charging stations. But studies have shown that the concept is somewhat dubious. “It’s largely impractical,” noted Tomas van Stee, CEO and founder of EnPowered, a global energy innovator. “While some gas stations (particularly those at highway rest stops) will be able to make going fully electric a viable business model, most gas stations won’t. Selling electricity is not like selling gas.”
estimates the total cost associated with the rule— including vehicles, home plug purchases, insurance and maintenance—at $289 billion through automotive model year 2040. The average new vehicle purchased will cost about $2,000 more than it would have by model year 2040, if ACCII standards remained in place. CARB expects these costs to be more than offset via benefits totaling $383 billion. More than 80% of these benefits come from savings on gasoline (68%) and savings from reductions in carbon emissions (12%); just 4.3% of the estimated benefits are related to health.” An equal trade? Adding even further complexity is the question of whether Californians can be assured that the move to alternatively fueled vehicles will, indeed, reduce carbon emissions. The vast increase in the number of electric vehicles that laws like California’s will herald begs the question: Are we trading one set of problems for another? For one thing, it’s been suggested that EV battery production can adversely impact the environment. Their batteries consist of materials such as nickel, lithium, cobalt and others, which are energy- intensive to mine. What’s more, EV chargers rely on electricity from power plants, which still use fossil fuels. This could be especially problematic in states like California, where the energy grid is already being pushed to its limit during the hot summer months.
“While some gas stations will be able to make going fully
electric a viable business model, most gas stations won’t. Selling electricity is not like selling gas.” Tomas van Stee CEO and Founder, EnPowered
With climate change such a hot topic, the air-quality bylaws have evolved into a national referendum on the topic. The legislation is sparking debate on both sides of the issue, with one faction cheering it from an “it’s about
Charging stations, the plug-in kiosks where EVs can power up, pose another challenge. California currently claims the highest number of them in the country: 80,000 in 2022. But as the experts agree, that’s a fraction of what will be needed to charge every new electric vehicle that will be hitting the roads as the ban takes effect. New national legislation is earmarking $7.5 billion toward building new charging stations, but the uphill struggle of constructing, equipping and operating these stations—especially in rural environments—remains a critical factor in the massive adaptation from gas to electricity. Economic impact There’s little disagreement among California state officials and residents that the state’s increasingly critical air pollution numbers are largely caused by gas-powered motor vehicles. In a statement about its new legislation, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) explains what’s at issue. “Mobile sources are the greatest contributor to emissions of…greenhouse gases (GHG) in California, accounting for about 80% of ozone precursor emissions and approximately 50% of statewide GHG emissions. California suffers some of the worst air pollution in the nation.” What concerns many, however, is the potential impact that such a sweeping new law will have on the California economy and, for that matter, on that of the entire country. Thus, CARB has gone out of its way to justify the ACCII ruling by issuing a Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment (SRIA) to review some of the areas likely to be affected by the new regulations. Regulatory expert Dan Bosch, who formerly headed up regulatory policy at the American Action Forum, summarized the CARB economic assessment: “CARB
time” point of view, while other voices argue that the legislation is too aggressive and the 2035 timetable
unreasonable in its goals.
Auto civilization There’s a reason why gas-powered cars and trucks are such a critical carbon-emissions target in the state. In 2021, California had more automotive registration filings than any state in the nation. In that year alone, almost 14.3 million vehicles were registered in the state and, what’s more, California has the highest number of registered motor vehicles overall: nearly 31.4 million. With these numbers, it’s clear why automobiles and trucks are the state’s leading source of air pollution, and why they’re the target of those who are attempting to curtail it. California’s joined-at-the-hip relationship with gas-powered automotive vehicles is as long-term as it is legendary. The state has long been an epicenter for automobiles, showcasing the sweeping influence they’ve had on everyday life. Literature from the state’s Capitol Museum, in fact, refers to California as the world’s first “auto civilization,” and goes on to say, “No form of transportation has had a greater impact on shaping the landscape of the Golden State than the automobile.”
According to an exhaustive study conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, however, while the concern is certainly reasonable, it’s not accurate. The study states that, “The greenhouse
4
5
calbanktrust.com/ inyourcorner
IN YOUR CORNER ISSUE 14 | 2023
Made with FlippingBook flipbook maker