it ’ s good to be average again October marked the first time since April 2022 that monthly home sales in Greater Victoria were at their long-run average levels. Should this trend be maintained into 2025, this would result in a considerable increase in annual sales.
were right in line with their prior 10-year October average (of 633), the first such instance since April 2022. While both the Vancouver and Kelowna real estate markets saw considerable increases in sales in October as well (up 41% and 29% month-over-month, respectively), Victoria was the only major market in British Columbia to have seen sales activity return to typical levels. Whether the Victoria market can maintain this pace will be the real test. With affordability conditions continuing to improve over the next year (via additional Bank of Canada interest rate cuts and new mortgage insurance rules taking effect in December), we at rennie expect 2025 to be a lot more average in Greater Victoria. Should monthly sales hold at long-run average levels through 2025, we could see total annual sales rise between 15% and 20% year-over-year. For a market that has been so depressed for the better part of the last two years, average would be a considerable improvement.
In many ways, October was a pretty eventful month. First, Statistics Canada reported inflation data that, at 1.6%, solidified the end of a more than two-year quest to bring down the highest inflation in a generation. That was followed by a larger-than-normal 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which has dropped its key policy rate from 5.00% to 3.75% in five months. Just one day later, the federal government announced a profound pivot to its immigration policy that, if fully implemented, would lead to the first decline in Canada’s population since Confederation. All the while, our neighbours (neighbors?) to the south were in the final month of campaigning toward what would be the re-election of Donald Trump. Despite all of that, a notable increase in real estate activity in Greater Victoria has
given us plenty to write about. There were 633 MLS sales in October, a 14% month- over-month increase that was quite a contrast to the typical 0.4% September- to-October decline. In fact, this was the largest September-to-October increase in 25 years of available data, a clear shift in trajectory from what has been more than two years of lackluster sales activity. Relative to October 2023, sales were up by 62%, the largest year-over-year gain since May 2021. Perhaps the most significant takeaway from last month, however, was the fact that sales were average again in Greater Victoria. Yes, you read that right—average! Average is typically not something to comment on, but considering how long it’s been since the Victoria market was moving at average levels (and how far it has strayed from average), last month was notable. Sales
3 Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of November 12, 2024. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E.
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