Converter Outlook: Part I (CONT’D FROM PAGE 1)
buyer it seems ridiculous that the industry needs the pres- ently accepted publication’s consent to change pricing. It leads to unpredictability and confusion. Are prices raised due to demand or due to increasing input costs, and, if so, what does that have to do with demand? Does the change in containerboard pricing cover other input costs associ- ated with running our businesses? It seems to me that the answer should lie with another approach to market pric- ing. I see the box market as a far more competitive market than Containerboard. Why should that be? To me Kraft Li- nerboard is a completely artificial market as evidenced by the prices that the kraft producers charge in foreign mar- kets. If more Kraft Linerboard is produced in Europe and South America, will those currently exported tons (from US Producers) need to be sold in the domestic market? May- be then Kraft Linerboard prices will be market driven with prices based on Market necessity. The foundation for Kraft Linerboard will remain unstable and probably unsustain- able. The changes make it even more important to support Ryan Fox’s efforts to more accurately predict real pricing movements and his more precise methodology. “For Acme, the year 2024 has been a transitional year. Following a major expansion, on the heels of the Pandem- ic, we have found the benefits in the deployment of the latest technology in box plant automation. We have added significant converting capacity in 2024 and that will con- tinue into 2025. We remain busy and our backlog for the beginning of the year is robust. “The pending price increase seems to be ill-timed, but I think it would be naïve to think that something won’t be recognized by the end of the first quarter. While RISI has cut back on their prediction of box demand, I think inde- pendents, like us, will increase sales well beyond the cau- tious forecast they have announced. I see 2025 as a year of opportunity. I remain optimistic about our prospects, and those of other independents who have a passion for their business and are in tune with the pulse of their re- spective markets. BAY CITIES Pico Rivera, California: Greg Tucker reports, “This year will be a defining year for the box business. I personally felt we would be out of our box recession at the end of summer, we would have gotten through the holidays rocking and rolling and back to a typical seasonal slow start in the first quarter of next year then launch into a more stable bal- ance of around 1-2 percent growth. The box business for most has been just ho hum for some time now. “Oddly enough, the advent of Donald Trump coming back into office meant that some companies are hedging their bets against tariffs, buying and filling up warehous- es again, with stuff, to temporarily avoid the hit of tariffs. What is the freight industry telling us? Are we poised for a giant rebound in our economy or are we just moving more CONTINUED ON PAGE 20
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