Energy Production Energy prices have been aided by the ramp up in U.S. and global oil production. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time in 2023. Crude oil production in the U.S. averaged 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million set in 2019. U.S. and global oil production decreased in 2020 due to an approximate 75% decline in oil prices which was caused by a significant drop in demand resulting from the global economic contraction. U.S. oil production declined by approximately 15% in 2020. U.S. and global oil production gradually increased beginning in 2021 as oil prices rose due to increasing demand as global economies recovered. In December 2023, average monthly U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of more than 13.3 million barrels per day. 2024 is on pace to be another record year for U.S. oil production. For the 12 months ended in October, gas prices were down 12.2% from the prior year. The Federal Reserve and Inflation When making monetary policy and interest rate decisions, the Federal Reserve focuses on price changes for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rather than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Both indexes calculate the price level by pricing a basket of goods. However, the basket of goods is slightly different and the index weighting of goods is slightly different. While the two are similar, the PCE index reflects to a greater degree how Americans are currently spending their money and more quickly adapts to changes in spending patterns. The Federal Reserve seeks to achieve inflation at a 2% rate over the long-run as measured by the annual change in the PCE price index. In September, PCE inflation decreased to 2.1%, slightly above the Federal Reserve target of 2%. Inflation 2025 Preview Inflation has been on a consistent, gradual descent since peaking in 2022 and is on track to hover around the Federal Reserve’s 2% target level in 2025. However, as stated earlier, 2025 is wrought with uncertainty, including changes in fiscal policy (including taxes and federal spending), tariffs and trade, and monetary policy. These changes could significantly impact consumer and business spending, government spending, the labor market, and consequently the level of inflation. Regarding tariffs and trade, new tariffs on imports will affect inflation as U.S. businesses will pay the tariffs. The extent to which new tariffs impact consumer prices will depend on the magnitude of the tariffs, how long they are implemented, and the magnitude of cost increases due to tariffs that businesses pass through to consumers. Short-term, some businesses may try to avoid the pending tariffs by building up imported inventory prior to the implementation of tariffs. The Stock Market 2024 The U.S. stock market consistently hit new highs in 2024, both before and after the election. The table below compares major stock indexes for the year-to-date and five-year annualized return for the period ending November 1, 2024. The selected indexes are broad measures of stock market performance in their respective countries. The U.S. S&P 500 is a leading benchmark index for U.S. large company (large-cap) stocks, with a long-run historical annual average return of approximately 10%. In 2024, robust economic growth led to record stock market highs, overshadowing the uncertainties created by the U.S. presidential election and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Through November 1, both the year-to-date and 5-year average return of the S&P 500 significantly outperformed its historical average. According to Morningstar, the year-to-date return on the S&P 500 was 20.10% while the 5-year average annual return was 13.31%. U.S. stock market returns reflect the strong U.S. economic recovery since 2020. Through November 1, relative to the stock markets in the table below, the U.S. stock market was the top performer based on both year-to-date and 5-year returns.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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