Global Stock Market Performance of Selected Indexes Year-to-Date and Five-Year Returns (annualized) as of November 1, 2024 (Sources: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance)
Country
Index
5-Yr. Return (annualized)
YTD Return
United States
S&P 500
13.31
20.10 -8.21 16.51
Mexico Canada
Morningstar Mexico PR Morningstar Canada PR
4.42 8.29 2.29 8.24 4.50
United Kingdom
FTSE 100
5.74
Germany
DAX
14.94 -1.09 13.71
France Japan
Morningstar France PR
Nikkei 225
10.74
Australia
Morningstar Australia PR
4.31 2.04
6.72 9.99
China
SSE Composite
Stock Market 2025 Preview Stock prices reflect expectations of future corporate profitability and cash flow. The expectation of lower corporate taxes and less regulation led to a bump in stock prices following the election. If economic growth continues to roll along in 2025, then the U.S. stock market will likely continue its upward climb. However, uncertainty remains as to the ultimate effect that new trade, fiscal, and monetary policies will have on economic growth and consequently the stock market. Summary – 2024 Economic Performance and 2025 Preview Overall, the U.S. economy ends 2024 in great shape. Economic growth has been solid since 2021, and in 2024 moderate growth continued. In the labor market, more Americans were working than ever before as monthly job gains continued, real wages increased, the unemployment rate remained at a relatively low level, and balance between demand and supply returned to the labor market. Inflation continued its decline and approached the Federal Reserve’s 2% target level. Interest rates were decreasing. The U.S. stock market hit record highs and was a global leader in providing returns to shareholders. Gas prices significantly declined and U.S. oil production was on pace for another record year. Although the housing market remained challenging due to low inventory and relatively high financing costs, overall, the U.S. economy performed extremely well. Current economic momentum makes the U.S. economy poised to continue and sustain its expansion. However, 2025 brings much economic uncertainty. A new Presidential administration has promised significant changes, with the impact of those changes yet-to-be determined. Tariffs and trade will be significantly changed. President-elect Trump has indicated that he will install a minimum 10-20% tariff on all imports, with at least a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Tariffs are paid by the company importing the goods, not the foreign country. Any new tariffs will likely result in retribution by foreign countries, with new tariffs on U.S. exports. In 2023, U.S. imports totaled $3.8 trillion while exports were $3.1 trillion. In 2023 the U.S. population was approximately 335 million, which translates to import product demand of over $11,000 per U.S. resident. The dollar volume of imports understates the role of imports in the U.S. economy, as many imports are components for U.S. made products.
Central Wisconsin Report - Fall 2024
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