According to the U.S. Census Bureau , the top three countries for U.S. imports through October 2024 and the percentage of U.S. imports: 1. Mexico (15.7%), 2. China (13.3%), 3. Canada (12.8%). According to the U.S. Census Bureau , U.S. imports ranked by end-user product categories in 2024: 1. Capital Goods (including electrical devices, computers, and industrial machinery), 2. Consumer Goods (including pharmaceuticals, cell phones, furniture, apparel), 3. Industrial Supplies, 4. Automotive vehicles and parts, 5. Food, Feed, and Beverages. The expected tariff policy will be significantly different from tariff policies implemented in 2019, as the expectation is that all imports would face tariffs. U.S. tariff rates peaked in 2019. The weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. According to the World Bank , the U.S. mean applied tariff rate increased from 1.59% in 2018 to 13.78% in 2019 before declining to 1.52% in 2020. The mean applied tariff rate would be significantly higher than 2019 if expected policies are implemented. Other changes: • Government spending on programs and federal government organizational structure will likely change and potentially be significantly altered. • The implementation of monetary policy and role of the Federal Reserve may be significantly modified. • Corporate taxes may be lowered. The individual tax cuts implemented in 2018 that are set to expire in 2025 will likely be extended. • Deportations may affect the supply of labor. All of the above could have a significant, yet-to-be determined impact on the economy. At the very least, 2025 will be an interesting year.
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Center for Business and Economic Insight
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